Archive for October, 2008
Cities Poised for Higher Home Prices
This short video clip from Forbes is of interest to seller’s, buyer’s and those who are watching the real estate market.
Click on this link to learn which US cities will bounce back the quickest and pick up some tips about why they will.
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Metro Area Home Price Index for August 2008
The Standard and Poor’s/Case Shiller Home Price Index Shows the Housing Market continues to Correct.
Sales of homes in August were UP, which is good news. The bad news is, sales were a result of falling home prices. The report also revealed that one-third of homes sales in August were foreclosures.
Home Prices, by Metro Area
| Metro Area | August 2008 | Change from July | Year-over-year change | Two-year change |
| Atlanta | 124.82 | -0.2% | -8.5% | -7.7% |
| Boston | 162.75 | 0.1% | -4.7% | -8.1 |
| Charlotte | 132.10 | -0.8% | -2.8% | 2.6% |
| Chicago | 149.53 | 0.0% | -9.8% | -11% |
| Cleveland | 110.54 | 1.1% | -6.6% | -10% |
| Dallas | 122.90 | -0.2% | -2.7% | -2.2% |
| Denver | 132.64 | 0.0% | -5.1% | -5.4% |
| Detroit | 92.44 | -0.8% | -17.2% | -2.5% |
| Las Vegas | 150.52 | -2.4% | -30.6% | -36% |
| Los Angeles | 189.18 | -1.8% | -26.7% | -31% |
| Miami | 183.48 | -1.8% | -28.1% | -34% |
| Minneapolis | 141.94 | 1.0% | -13.8% | -17% |
| New York | 192.84 | -0.2% | -6.9% | -10% |
| Phoenix | 144.83 | -2.9% | -30.7% | -36% |
| Portland | 171.93 | -1.3% | -7.6% | -5.0% |
| San Diego | 168.23 | -2.3% | -25.8% | -32% |
| San Francisco | 151.42 | -3.5% | -27.3% | -30% |
| Seattle | 175.24 | -0.7% | -8.8% | -3.6% |
| Tampa | 174.30 | -0.4% | -18.1% | -26% |
| Washington | 194.86 | -0.3% | -15.4% | -21% |
4 Economic Prediction’s for 2009
As the owner of a small, woman-owned business for the last 25 years, I have experienced a lot of market up’s and down’s. And, while the 2008 market is unique to itself, it does have similar traits with other declines in the real estate, financial and equity markets that we can draw from.
So, what does my experience tell me about predictions for equities and housing in 2009?
- Housing has further to fall in 2009. Housing has a bit further to fall as inventories remain at historical highs, and new inventory is being added daily. We are currently foreclosing on 10,0000 homes per month on average, and the end is no where in sight. The numbers of loan deliquencies and defaults are increasing, keeping downward pressure on home prices and upward pressure on unsold inventory.
- More Trouble Finding or Keeping A Job in 2009. The U.S. unemployment rate is growing along with the national debt. As business continues to slow, we will see more layoff’s and company closings in industries such as building and contruction, financial’s, auto’s, airlines, travel and retail.
- Credit Problems in 2009. Lenders will be very cautious about loaning money, even to their best customer’s, until they divest themselves of unperforming assets. The spread’s on mortgage rates will remain high in 2009, increasing the costs to borrow.
- Wall Street in 2009. The stock market looks forward, not backward. The recent sell off was not caused by horrific events which occurred in 2008 or earlier. The recent, unprecedented stock market decline, tells us that Wall Street expects and has priced in, that 2009 will be one of the worst ecomonic periods in U.S. history. If the street thinks the economy will improve in 2010, then 2009 should be an up year for equities. But, sit on cash for now, as it is really too early to tell.
For all the reasons above, I do not see a rosy 2009. But, that being said, I do see the opportunities that will present themselves. With regard to housing, I think we are nearing the bottom and price declines indicate that a lot of the risk is off the table. For those that are investing in real estate for the long term or for a place to live, I don’t see prices getting remarkably cheaper from here. Buyer’s planning to hold for five years would probably do well to take advantage of today’s interest rates. I see higher lending costs in the future, due to government borrowing, earning slowdown’s and regretable past mistakes.
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Best Advice for Emerging Trends in Real Estate
The housing market and US economy is extremely scary this Halloween. Many of us feel as if we have been buried alive. But, just like the zombies on a late night horror flick, real estate investor’s will raise from the dead and roam the earth again.
The market forecaster’s predict that the market will hit bottom in 2009, and will fight to survive through much of 2010.
During this period, we will experience further drops in property values, as foreclosures and deliquencies continue. Job loss and the faltering US economy will continue to pinch property cash flows and hamper an active lending environment, .
So, what signs of life will investors see before exhumation begins? Which opportunities are lurking, just below the surface, that the prudent should take advantage of?
- The gruesome death of US real estate market has a beneficiary. The cash rich, foreign buyer. These well-healed investors will take advantage of a weak dollar, focusing on “trophy” properties located in major, active cities with plentiful employment and quality of life.
- The first area’s of the country to show signs of recovery will be the “cities that never sleep”, located in coastal area’s.
- Multi-family and higher density properties with retail shopping will be the focus for future developers.
- Other developer’s will focus building in area’s with neighborhood retail centers with big box grocery and chain drug store anchors.
- Apartment building investments may pay off now. Look for mid-range property near transit in high density locations. Vacancy rates are very low, and will remain so, as people cut living expenses.
- Distressed condo’s located in urban area’s near transit bode watching.
- GREEN is GOOD. Cutting energy expenses will be a priority for investors and buyers, alike.
- Residential building lots will get a cheaper, as builders dump options and inventory. Spelling profit potetianal for the patient.
- Commericial will show signs of life, before residential.
The world is indeed a dark, scary place at the moment. But, rest assured, the sun will come up. And, while we have no quick way to stop the bleeding, the ones of us who survive the slaughter may grow fat on the plentiful carnage. To the mindful, patient go the spoils.
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Seller’s Should Freshen Up a Stale Listing with New Photo’s
As home shoppers search through listings of homes for sale, nothing screams STALE LISTING, like seeing a photo of your home that was taken during another season.
If the season’s have changed while your home is on the market, freshen up your listing with new seasonal photo’s. It’s Free and Easy to Do.
- For extra appeal, stage the photo with seasonal color or add a pumpkin or two before you snap the picture. The bonus, pumpkins and seasonal decor can be enjoyed through Thanksgiving.
- If your home has features that are more appealing during certain times of the year, such as swimming pools, waterfronts, flower beds and landscape, leave the photo’s, but change the captions to reflect the height of the season. (ie: Fun in the Sun 2009, for example).
- Highlight and rephotograph the area’s of your home that are appealing when the weather is crisp. Photograph a fire in the indoor or outdoor fireplace. Decorate the dining room for fall entertaining, then shoot. Snap a picture of your media room right before the big game. The goal is to Showoff the features of your home that you enjoy during this time of year.
- A home/neighborhood video tour is another great way to freshen up your listing and reach a whole new audience, too. InfoTube.net uploads video tours on its homepage and to youtube.com, bringing your home to the attention of a whole new crowd.
It takes only a few minutes to edit your ad and replace old, dated photo’s. Freshen up your listing and celebrate the season. Buyer’s will notice.
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Warren Buffet says “Buy American”
Made in the USA
We love Warren Buffet and we couldn’t agree more. American’s need to support American business, while we still have businesses to support.
I would like to take this opportunity to let our customer’s know that our InfoTube and InfoBox, outdoor document container’s, are made 100 percent in the USA. We employee the disabled and handicapped to bring the InfoTube, the original and #1 selling product of its kind, to the marketplace. And, The InfoBox is made by US workers in Erie, PA. In addition, we buy from only US supplier’s when we purchase the materials that go into making our products.
So, take it from Warren. Buy InfoTube or InfoBox for your marketing needs and you buy American. You can purchase our products from a lot of American businesses such as, your local sign company, real estate board or major retailers such as Lowes and Home Depot.
We appreciate your business and thank you for supporting us over these past 20 years!!!!
5 NEW RULES FOR REAL ESTATE INVESTING
The new, US economy brings with it, a whole new set of rules for investing in real estate. In the past, real estate has been a tried and proven method for quickly building wealth, but the current rules for successful investing have changed.
Making money in real estate is still a possibility, but investor’s must pay very close attention to the changes that this ecomonic cycle brings. Today’s investors need to reexamine their criteria for buying, selling or holding property. They also need a lot of patience and flexibility, along with complete and detailed research, before they jump in and take advantage of some of the best bargains seen in years.
NEW RULES FOR INVESTING IN TODAY’S REAL ESTATE MARKET
NEW RULE #1: LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION. For the baby boom generation, the suburbs were “the” location for profit and life style. Fuel was cheap, commutes were short and the ‘burbs’ offered the big house, with picket fenced yards and the image of the Leave It to Beaver lifestyle. Not so much, today. Today, it is the urban scene that is making a comeback. While homes in downtown area’s are generally more expensive on a price per square foot basis, buyer’s today are willing to pay a bit more money for less square footage. Urban center living eliminates long commutes, urban sprawl, expensive fuel bills and provides nearby ammenities without the need to drive.
NEW RULE #2: STAY PUT AND DO NOT REMODEL WHEN THE MARKET IS SLOW. In the past, many homeowners gained equity by renovating their old home while the market was slow. The improvements added value to their real estate, while they waited for more favorable market conditions. In the 2008 housing market, any major renovations should be analyzed purely from a return on investment perspective. According to Remodeling Magazine, which just published its Cost vs Value Report, homeowners should be warned that they will not recover as much of their costs for remodeling as they did in the past. The best investment today’s homeowner can make in terms of renovating fall in the category of paint, landscape and green, energy saving features.
NEW RULE #3: Technology and Networking are the Key to Locating Great Properties. Home listings, valuations and other crucial information for real estate investment used to be available only through a real estate agent. Now, the genie is out of the bottle and the best sources for real estate information can be accessed with nothing more than the click of a mouse. More technology has also made it possible for home seller’s to list their property on the powerful, national MLS, without listing with a agent. Companies like Why 6 Percent.com, and its national network of broker’s, list property for seller’s, investors and builders who want the exposure the MLS provides, but do not want to pay 6 percent of their sales price for the priviledge. Technology has changed the way buyer’s and seller’s connect, and the way that property is advertised. Smart investor’s should take advantage of this new alternative, as it offer’s accuracy, speed and control unmatched by the traditional route of buying and selling through agent’s only.
New Rule #4: BIGGER IS NOT ALWAYS BETTER. In the past, agent’s and home builder’s advised buyer’s to purchase as large of a home as they could possibly afford. As a result, home size in the 1970’s averaged about 1700 square feet, with 3.1 people in the average family. In 2004, the average size of a home was around 2400 square feet with only 2.6 occupants on average. Today’s lending and energy crisis has changed our thinking and bigger is not necessarily the best investment. Buyer’s are looking for a home that meets their needs without paying for space they don’t need. Today’s investor needs to adapt their thinking and focus on useable living space, energy saving ammenities, security and conveniences instead of targeting the over blown McMansion. Another demographic also backs up the theory that smaller may be better. For the next two decades, retiring baby boomers will be scaling out of their McMansions, now that their families have left the nest. The boomer’s will favor smaller homes with more ammenities, located in convenient neighborhoods that are clean and safe.
New Rule #5: FLIPPING IS OUT. BUY AND HOLD IS IN. Today’s falling prices and the huge inventory of unsold property means that potential bargains are plentiful. Smart Investor’s will take advantage of the current market and lock themselves into a good deal now, and hold the property until stability returns. Prospective investors should be warned that the crash we are experiencing will not turn around anytime soon. Prices will continue to fall, though not as dramatically as we have seen in the recent past. As prices firm and inventory is sold, the patient investor will see gains, but they should plan on waiting five years to ring the register.
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Short Sale, REO or Foreclosure. Type of Sale Matters to Buyers.
Home for Sale
While the present ecomonic situation in this country is uncertain, one thing remains unchanged. Markets will rise. Markets will fall. Markets will Recover. Savvy Investors/Buyers will Profit.
Too much inventory, and too much absurd lending and borrowing, have Americans facing the worst housing market since the great depression. While this is not new news, the opportunities in this market may be.
Home buyers with money in the bank, a job and good credit have not been in such a great position in decades. Price declines and record loan defaults have made bargain hunting for a home a lot more fun. The McMansion, many believed they could never afford, is now well within their grasp.
So, what is the truth about getting a great deal in this market? Are some properties easier to buy than others? Can you really get a steal from lenders sitting on unsold inventory?
The answer is YES, but there are big differences in the types of distressed property being offered for sale.
- SHORT SALES: A short sale is one in which the borrower is behind on their mortgage, but they still own the property. Usually, the borrower owes more to the lender than they can sell the home for (upside down). Usually a short seller will ask the bank to consider any offer on the property and “forgive” the outstanding loan balance. A short sale is good for the home owner because short sales do not reflect as poorly on their credit report. Short sales are good for the lender because they don’t have another vacant home on their books.
- MAKING A OFFER ON A SHORT SALE HOME: This is the most difficult type of distressed housing to make an offer on. Unless you have a lot of patience or an unlimited amount of time to sit and wait for a response to your offer, you may want to seriously avoid properties advertised as Short Sales. Truefully, very few, if any, offers made on Short Sales ever close.
- REO’s and Foreclosures: These are bank owned properties and there are plenty to choose from. These types of listings sell very quickly. Generally the buyer can be sitting in their new living room in less than 30 days after submitting an offer on a lender owned property.
- MAKING AN OFFER ON A FORECLOSURE OR REO: Banks are completely detached and unemotional from their home listings. They know exactly what they need in terms of price, they know the local market and they love quick closings. That being said, you won’t be successful offering 75, 80 or even 90 percent of the list price. You will more than likely be out bid, as often the winning bid is over the list price. Keep in mind that the bank is not like a human home seller, they usually never counter low ball offers, they simply move on to the next offer in the pile.
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13 Cities with Scary Housing Markets
The PMI Group rates 50 metro area’s for their risk of further housing price declines. Their recent ratings found that the following 13 area’s have greater than a 90 percent chance of seeing further price erosion.
What does this mean for seller’s who need to sell? If you live in one of the named locations, you should seriously consider reducing your price, before the market does it for you.
In addition to a meaningful price reduction, seller’s in these cities need to get serious about their marketing efforts. The single best use of your advertising dollars is to place your property on the MLS. The MLS is ‘the’ database of available properties in this country. If your home isn’t listed on the MLS, your property is essentially invisable to millions of home shoppers and thousands of real estate agents.
13 Scary Markets that Have Further to Fall
- Ft Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, FL
- Riverside-San Bernardino, CA
- Orlando-Kissimmee, FL
- Miami-Miami Beach, FL
- Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
- Las Vegas, NV
- Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA
- Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CA
- Jacksonville, FL
- Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ
- Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA
- San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA
- Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, CA
Note: The PMI Risk Report examines major changes in mortgage and lending trends, as well as the rising unemployment and the impact of foreclosures to predict home prices for 50 major metropolitian area’s of the US. To see the strongest markets, with the least risk of further price decline, please see our blog posting from October 9, 2008.
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14 Cities with Stable or Rising Home Prices
The PMI Group just released its Fall 2008 Real Estate Market Risk Index for the nation’s 50 largest metropolitan area’s. The PMI Risk Index indicated that increased foreclosures and unemployment have significantly heightened the risk of future home price declines in the 94 percent of all markets.
The good news, found in the report, is that 14 markets have less than a one percent chance of continued falling home prices. In these markets, buyer’s should be cautioned that if they wait to buy, they will likely face higher home costs in the future.
If you are interested in buying a home in one of these 14 markets, indications are that prices have stablizied and you should seriously consider buying now. An added bonus for buyer’s in these lucky markets is also the timing. Yesterday’s half point Fed rate cut makes the costs of borrowing money for that dream home much less painful.
14 Low Risk Markets with Stable Home Prices:
- Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
- Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX
- Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX
- Pittsburgh, PA
- San Antonio, TX
- Memphis, TN
- Indianapolis-Carmel, IN
- Austin-Round Rock, TX
- Columbus, OH
- Denver-Aurora, CO
- Cincinnati-Middleton, OH, KY, IN
- Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC
- Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI
- St. Louis, MO, IL
Sidelined Buyers in these markets should act immediately to take full advantage of low interest rates and reduced home prices. Sellers in these markets should aggressively market their homes and take advantage of the exposure an MLS listing can provide.
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Coldwell Banker Asks Sellers to Drop Price 10 Percent
From Reuters:
Coldwell Banker Asks Sellers for 10-day price cuts to spur home sales
One of the largest U.S. real estate companies said it is asking its sellers to cut their listing prices by as much as 10 percent to kick-start U.S. home sales in a market plagued by falling prices and near-record unsold inventory supply.
Coldwell Banker Real Estate said some 25,000 sellers, who have homes listed with its brokers, will cut prices during its first national, 10-day sales event starting on Friday, October 10th. The goal, to lure potential buyers off the sidelines in the worst housing market since the Great Depression.
Most owners still are unrealistic when pricing their homes, and a reduction of 10 percent or less would push the properties “over the tipping point to a sale,” according to Coldwell Banker, which is based in Parsipanny, New Jersey, and is part of Realogy Corp.
“The main driver is to bring buyers and sellers together and to increase the activity in the marketplace,” Jim Gillespie, president and chief executive officer of Coldwell Banker, said in an interview.
…
Many sellers have been reluctant to slash asking prices, but they face competition from the large number of foreclosed homes on the market at discounted prices.A recent Coldwell Banker survey found that more than half of the real estate agents said listing prices in their market are too high to attract qualified buyers. Brokers, however, believe that, depending on the market, a price cut of up to 10 percent will be enough to stoke sales.
Kathryn Taylor is one seller who hopes that’s the case.
“The economy. No movement for our home, or even any interest, just because people are scared,” she said, explaining her decision to cut the asking price on her parents’ home in Silver Spring, Maryland, by 10 percent for 10 days.
The two master-bedroom, two-bathroom home in an over-55 community was listed in May at $458,000, undercutting several nearby sellers of the same model.
“This is the first time we’re lowering it, and we really didn’t want to do that because we listed it to sell,” she said. “We knew things were tough, but the home is a really desirable unit in a neighborhood that rarely has anything come open so we didn’t think it would have any problems selling.”
…
Taylor, a retired government employee, is getting “more antsy” about selling. Her father passed away last year and her mother is moving to a nursing home that costs $9,000 each month.With stock wealth being roiled, “it’s getting more and more important to keep her afloat by selling this house,” she said of her mother.
Sellers can opt to keep their asking prices lower after the 10-day sale, according to Coldwell Banker.
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Hope for Homeowners & FHASecure Help Homeowners Refinance Risky Loans
Hope for Homeowners is a new program, created by congress, to assist homeowners in refinancing their “at risk” loans into more affordable FHA, insured mortgages.
It is estimated that over 400,000 homeowners could avoid foreclosure through participation in the voluntary program, by enrolling before September 30, 2011.
In order to qualify for the special refinancing, the original loan must have been originated on or before January 1, 2008. In addition, the existing mortgage payment must exceed 31 percent of the borrower’s gross monthly income.
FHASecure is another program designed to help homeowners refinance and avoid foreclosure. The program, which went into effect on July 14th, offers borrowers with ARM’s, the option to refinance with an FHA insured mortgage designed to lower the monthly mortgage payment. Under the FHASecure program, lenders can not disqualify borrowers based on loan payment deliquency and the lender may actually offer a second mortgage to make up the difference between the appraised value of the property and the outstanding balance due.
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