Good News Bad News for Housing in 2010
Thursday, November 19th, 2009
The latest housing news was just released for October 2009. Although this news looks backward, it also provides some insight about what we can expect the housing market to look like in 2010. Good? Bad? The answer depends on what your are looking to achieve, your outlook, location and financial goals.
What we Know Now!
- The number of foreclosures now exceeds the number of new and existing homes for sale on the market, combined.
- The number of new foreclosures coming into the market place will certainly increase through mid-2010.
- Subprime foreclosures are in the rear view mirror. The new foreclosures coming to the market stem from prime borrowers. This will result in an increased inventory of more expensive, luxury and second homes during this foreclosure cycle.
- If tax incentives, low prices and low interest rates boost buyer confidence, then sales demand should keep pace with the new supply. Result, house prices should remain fairly stable.
- If unemployment and job concerns keep buyers on the sidelines, the inventory supply will increase, thus home sale prices will seek out new lows.
- Seller’s of homes priced in excess of $500,000 will see much more competition and longer days on the market in 2010.
- The increase of Foreclosures and Bad Loans was Expected. Lenders anticipated a worse, ’worst case scenario’ during their Fed mandated Stress Tests. Thankfully, the Fed should not have to intervene further to keep banks solvent, like they did last year.
- If the jobless rate falls below 500,000, expect upward pressure on interest rates. The Fed is already walking a very fine line in trying to keep rates artificially low at this point. Any relief in the job market will likely mean an increase in rates and mortgage payments.
- The 4 states hardest hit in the housing crash will continue to see the highest rates of default and foreclosure. But, much further downside is limited in these beaten down area’s.
- The foreclosure problem is spreading into cities and states that were less troubled earlier in the cycle. New locations and regions of the country will see record numbers of foreclosed property. The hardest hit communities in 2010 will be some of the previously most stable.
Bottom Line: Whether you’re a bull or bear depends upon whether you are buying or selling. But, this is what you should expect and watch for in 2010.
Homes in lower price ranges will see price stabilization due to less inventory and tax incentives. Bargain shoppers seeking more expensive homes will have plenty of inventory to chose from. Vacation and second home shoppers get more for their money, in more locations, as a record number of these wonderful homes fall victim to the gavel. The 4, hardest hit states will still experience problems, but seller’s in new, previously stable area’s of the country will sustain the most damage this go around. Home builders will continue to struggle in the face of the largest inventory of existing homes they’ve seen yet.
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