Archive for the ‘Financial Crisis’ Category
Extending Home Buyer Tax Credit. Pro’s and Con’s
Not surprisingly, real estate industry lobbiest are attempting a full court press as they make a final push for extension of the first-time buyer tax credit.
And, it’s little wonder. The IRS estimates that 1.4 million homebuyers have claimed the credit through August, and the Realtors Association estimates the credit was crucial in pushing 355,000 of those buyer’s off the fence.
If the real estate industry gets it’s way and the amendment passes, the $8000 tax credit would be extended to June 30th, 2010 and it would allow more taxpayers to qualify for the subsidy. The amendment would increase the income limit to $150,000 for a single filer and $300,000 for a couple, up from the current limit of 95,000 and $170,000, respectfully.
The Pro’s: Why Vote “Yea”
- Lenders are still in trouble, as more people default or fall behind on their mortgages. Experts predict an additional 1.5 million foreclosures in 2010, increasing supply and further eroding prices and demand.
- Dems and Rep like it. The proposal was introduced by a GA Republican, Johnny Isakson, and it is also supported by Democratic heavy-weights. House speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid support the extension, President Obama hasn’t taken a position for either side.
- Still too Many Houses. Although the supply of existing homes on the market has fallen from 1-5 months down to 8.5 months, a healthy market has only 5-6 months supply of house.
- Unemployment is Rising. With national unemployment levels at 10 percent, and some states reporting a far higher number, extending the taxpayer subsidy of housing market would likely create and preserve jobs. In addition, people out of work usually means more loan deliquency, foreclosures and further downward pressure on pricing.
The Con’s: Why Vote “NAY”
- The Cost to the Taxpayers. The extension comes with a heavy price tag of $16.7 BILLION over 5 years.
- As bad as Sub-Prime. Opponents argue that the subsidy has artifically propped up the prices of inexpensive homes, targeted by first-time buyer’s, thereby creating another potential mini-bubble in affordable housing.
- Both Opponents and real estate industry admit that most people who claimed the $8000 deduction, would have purchased a home anyway due to historical low rates and steep price declines.
- Fraud. The IRS has identified over 100,000 cases of fraud involving the tax credit. On Thursday, the House Ways and Means Committee is scheduled to take a closer look.
- Did we mention the cost to taxpayers is $16.7 BILLION?
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Latest Home Sales Data and Predictions for 2010
Case Shiller just released its latest report on the state of the residential estate market. The good news is that home prices are falling more slowly. The bad news is that that we have a little ways to go.
What the Numbers Show:
- Through August, 2009, the price of an average home sold in the US fell approximately 13 percent, year over year, from 2008 levels.
- Home prices have now dropped to 2003 valuation levels, wiping out 6 years of home appreciation.
- Since the peak in 2006, average home prices are down 33 percent.
What Do the Numbers Say About the Future??
- Prediction: The “average” home price will likely fall more than 13 percent by year end. Reason: Home prices are always at their highest in the spring and summer. Families move during this time of year and they buy the largest, most expensive properties. As a result, Summer home sales skew the “average” price upward in the fall, but only temporarily.
- Prediction: Home Sales will suffer a downturn due to the expiration of the $8000 First Time Buyer’s Credit. So far this year, 350,000 buyers have been persuaded to purchase because of this incentive. To read more about the success of the 1st Time Home Buyers Tax Credit, CLICK HERE.
Our Crystal Ball: The pace of the fall is slowing, but the expiration of the tax credit and the ”shadow inventory” of another 1.5 Million foreclosures will continue to put downward pressure on the market in 2010. As a result, we predict that 2010 home prices will decline 6-7 percent. The upside is that nearly all buying risk is out of the market. Interest rates are at historical lows. Any increase in rates would erase the possible gain a buyer would achieve from correctly timing the exact bottom…even if the timing were perfect.
Bottom Line: If you plan to buy a home within the next year, now is a great time. Chose the best home, in the best location and the one that you can easily afford. Live and enjoy the home for at least 5 years and you will likely be patting yourself on the back for a job well done.
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Did First Time Buyer Tax Credit Help Sellers?
The $8000 Tax Credit for first time home buyer’s (people who have not owned a home in the last 3 years) expires on November 30, 2009. With the expiration date drawing near, the Realtor and builder lobby groups are pushing lawmakers to extend the program for another 6 months. If they are successful, it will cost taxpayers of nearly $15 BILLION.
“Yea” or “Nay”??? Before we cast our vote, we decided to find out whether the tax incentive successful or not? Specifically, did it persuade people to jump into the market? Would it be a good investment for taxpayers going forward?
According to a poll conducted by Zillow, the tax credit was persuasive.
- 18 percent of home buyers said the tax credit was the main reason they pushed to buy a home before November 30, 2010.
- Based on the number of first time buyer’s in the marketplace, a 6 month extension could persuade another 335,000 (18 percent) buyers to buy a home of their own.
- If the first time buyer credit is extended, home sales would likely increase 5 percent. Without it, sales would be down as much as 2 percent.
- Only 31 percent of first time buyers said the credit had no influence on their decision to purchase.
- 69 percent of buyers said the tax credit was important in motivating them to buy a home this year.
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Foreclosures Up. Home Prices Predicted to Fall Further
In August, InfoTube warned its readers about the New Wave of Foreclosures that would be pounding the market, further driving up inventory and eroding prices. Today, we learn that the Wall Street Journal agree’s with our accessment of the future market conditions for real estate.
Excerpt from the Wall Street Journal:
“The size of this shadow inventory is a source of concern and debate among real-estate agents and analysts who worry that when the supply is unleashed, it could interrupt the budding housing recovery and ignite a new wave of stress in the housing market . . . Analysts who track the shadow market have focused primarily on the gap between the number of seriously delinquent loans and the number of foreclosed homes for sale by mortgage companies. A loan is considered seriously delinquent, which typically means it is headed to foreclosure, if it is 90 days or more past due.
As of July, mortgage companies hadn’t begun the foreclosure process on 1.2 million loans that were at least 90 days past due, according to estimates prepared for The Wall Street Journal by LPS Applied Analytics, which collects and analyzes mortgage data. An additional 1.5 million seriously delinquent loans were somewhere in the foreclosure process, though the lender hadn’t yet acquired the property. The figures don’t include home-equity loans and other second mortgages.
Moreover, there were 217,000 loans in July where the borrower hadn’t made a payment in at least a year but the lender hadn’t begun the foreclosure process. In other words, 17% of home mortgages that are at least 12 months overdue aren’t in foreclosure, up from 8% a year earlier.”
What this means for Home Seller’s: Time is not your friend. The shadow of inventory of distressed property will continue to place downward pressure on home prices. Based upon our years of experience, we predict that home prices will fall an average of 7 percent in 2010.
If you need to sell your home, DO NOT chase the market down. Price your property aggressively, then market the home to as wide an audience as possible. To learn about the best way to reach the mass buying market, CLICK HERE.
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New Wave of Foreclosures Coming
Bank of America, along with other lenders, report that a huge wave of new foreclosures will flood the market, once again. The second wave in foreclosures is due to the slowing of the loan modification program and the new release of properties that the banks have been holding.
Currently, 1.5 million homes are in foreclosure. More Worrisome…an additional 3.5 – 4 Million home loans are “Seriously” delinquent or are in default. Many of these loans are newer, high quality loans that have fallen into trouble due to job losses. Job losses mean no income, so modifying or saving the loan is not an option for these homeowners.
Buyer Alert: The $8000 Tax Credit for Buying a Home Expires in Only 90 Days. If your loan does not close on or before November 30, 2009, you lose $8000 Grand. Period. With loans currently taking 90 or more days to close, you must buy a home now, in order to qualify.
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5 Tips for Smarter Home Buying
Record low interest rates, combined with deeply discounted home prices, have bottom fishers swimming frantically, in search of the perfect deal on the perfect home. But, before you strike, beware. Read our 5 Tips to Avoid Getting Hooked in a bad way.
- 1. Think Long Term: This is a market for smart bottom fishers, not flippers. In this market, our advice is that you should plan to buy a home to live in, then hold it for 3-5 years, at the minimum. Our reasoning, first, prices have not fully stabilized at these levels. Secondly, there is no indication that prices will rise any time soon. Last of all, we are still facing a rise in foreclosures in 2010, which will keep downward pressure on the market.
- It’s All About the Local Market: We have all heard the golden rule of successful real estate investing…Location, Location, Location. In other words, if you have a choice between a bigger home in an ‘iffy’ area, or a smaller home in a better one, always pick the the Good Location. Remember, when comparing locations, real estate markets are entirely a Local matter. There are big differences within neighborhoods, zipcodes, school systems and suburban towns. Focus on the hottest area’s and the ones that are conveniently located near major employment centers. In rough sea’s, these area’s will always rebound the fastest and appreciate the most.
- Be Wary of Foreclosures: While some foreclosures may be a great buy, many of these properties are “cheap” for good reasons. Many of the homes weren’t great to begin with and most have been terribly neglected. Carefully look for mold, water penetration, structural problems, missing appliances, soiled carpets and flooring underlayments, broken windows and glass, strange odors and any evidence of illegal drug trade. Also, never get emotionally attached to a foreclosure home. Banks are notoriously hard to deal with and they can take forever to respond to offers. Some buyer’s report a wait of several months before the bank approved an offer, or not.
- Get Pre-Qualified for a Loan: Submit your letter of loan approval with any offer you make on a home. Banks always require a letter of pre-qualification before considering a bid, as will any serious seller. With proof of funds in hand, you will be taken much more
seriously by all seller’s, and you will in the end, get a much better deal on the house. Getting Pre-Approved for financing is no lose proposition. - Don’t Take Chances. Buyer’s are in the drivers seat and a lot of great values are available, but please don’t overspend. The job market and general ecomony are uncertain. Make sure you can afford the property, even if you find yourself in a bad or unexpected situation. Even the perfect property can turn into a nightmare, if you can’t reasonably afford it.
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Cash for Refrigerators Program
Cash for Refrigerators. $300 million dollars of stimulus money has been set aside for consumer’s who purchase new, energy saving appliances. Rebates of $50.00-$200.00 will be available in October on purchases of refrigerators, dishwashers, washing machines and air conditioners.
Program Eligibility:
- To qualify, the consumer must purchase appliances with an Energy Star designation.
- You don’t have to “trash” your old appliance to qualify.
- States must apply to the program before October 15, 2009
Pro’s:
- Upgrading to an Energy Star rated appliance saves a family $50-$150 per year in utility costs.
- Rebates will ease the transition into new efficient appliances and help some consumers avoid going into debt in order to upgrade.
- Could provide a boost to the beleaguered appliance and home improvement industries who are suffering in the bad economy.
- Helps the environment.
Con’s:
- No plan for the Trashed Appliances. Currently there is no plan for proper disposal for the trashed appliances. Old appliances can be donated or resold, which will not help the environment.
- If we can’t find a way to recycle old appliances, the program will add more trash to the planet.
Tips for Consumers:
- Most retailers will haul away your old appliances, when you purchase a new one. Ask the retailer what happens to the old one, after they pick it up. Buy only from retailers who can prove that they recycle or destroy the old appliances.
- Use a Good Recycler to Take the Appliance Away. Good recyclers will capture all coolants in the units which cause serious harm to the environment. In addition, they will recycle all the metal and foam contained in the old unit.
- GE and KitchenAid are offering additional manufacturer rebates on Energy Star Rated appliances now. Click on the company name for details.
Thank you for visiting InfoTube.net. We hope that Cash for Refrigerators is as successful as Cash for Clunkers. If you have been waiting to update your appliances, October will be an excellent time.
What is the Shadow Inventory of Homes?
A recent news article by Reuters states that “The percentage of U.S. homeowners who owe more than their house is worth will nearly double to 48 percent in 2011.”
Meaning? Half of us will be upside down, underwater, or whatever you want to call it over the next 2 years? Pretty scary. How do they know that? One indicator they use may be the Shadow Inventory of Homes, which will eventually enter the market place over the next 3 years.
So, what is a Shadow Inventory of Homes and How Does it Affect Future Home Values? Technically, a property is not in foreclosure until the lenders files against a deliquent loan. Lenders are purposefully not filing to foreclose, in order to control the present inventory by keeping homes off the market. This creates a Shadow Inventory of Homes in Default. Why do they do this? Simple economics, really. Less supply creates more demand (ie: higher prices) for the property they already have for sale.
Since, we know lenders are holding back the number of homes that should be in foreclosure, how many “shadow” distressed properties will come into the market in the future? Truefully, we can’t know the exact number. That is the reason it is referred to as a Shadow Inventory. We can all see that the problem is lurking out there, but we can’t identify the exact numbers or the amount of future damage because “only the shadow knows…”.
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June 2009 New Home Sales Info and Charts.
Click Here to see the latest news on new home sales. The easy to read charts, with comments, give instant insight to the housing market.
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Home Appraisals. Something is Wrong.
InfoTube has been blogging that Something is Wrong with real estate appraisals for quite some time now. A new rule, called “Home Valuation Code of Conduct”, which went into effect on May 1st, has derailed sales and wrecked havoc on homeowners and buyers, with the worst possible timing.
The intent of the new rule for loan funding was to eliminate inflated appraisals. Lawmakers found that lenders, such as Washington Mutual, pressured appraisers to inflate values in order to make more money on higher priced loans. Although accurate appraisals are necessary to prevent fraud, the policy has had unintended, devastating effects on the entire real estate industry.
Take the case of the Mann family from San Jose, CA. David and Penny Mann decided to sell their downtown Victorian home in order to move to a retirement community closer to their children and grandchildren. They knew the market was tough, but they priced the home to sell and they were rewarded with back to back offers. They accepted an offer for $560,000 from an excited young couple, buying their first home.
The Mann’s home appraised for full value, but it was deemed to be invalid, because it was done before the new rule took effect. The second appraiser, sent by an appraisal management company, came in $100,000 below the contract price, resulting in the buyer being turned down for their loan. After the initial tears and panic, both parties did some frantic research. They discovered that the appraiser didn’t live in San Jose and had never worked there. Both buyer and seller decided to take action versus lying down and rolling over.
The buyer’s, a lawyer and student, toured at least 40 homes before buying the Mann’s house, and had lived in San Jose their entire lives. They knew that the 100 year old home was perfect for them and they insisted that the management company send an appraiser, from the 408 area code to value the property. The 33 year old lawyer said, “I am an educated person.” …”I’ve lived in the Bay Area my whole life”. “I had no question it was worth $560,000, plus. Neither did my agent or the mortgage broker or the first appraiser. “Nor, as it turned out, did a third appraiser”,… who valued the property at the full sales price.
After all the drama, buyer and seller recently celebrated their victory at the Mann house. The first time buyer’s brought the wine. The Mann’s provided fresh peaches from the tree in the backyard. Finally, a happy ending.
Unfortunately, not all victims of the new appraisal law are as fortunate as these couples. 75 percent of Industry professionals said they have had at least one low appraisal problem since May 1st, with the average loss being around $13,000. In addition, 90 percent of real estate professionals site that at least one transaction had fallen apart because of the new law.
Something is definitely wrong, but you can take action:
To read more about what you can do if you are the victim of a low ball appraisal, Click Here.
To sign a petition to repeal the law, Click Here. Gary Miller, Rep from California is co-sponsoring legislation.
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Fraud Alleged in REO and Short Sales
An accusation of fraud is a serious matter, but some home buyer’s and their agents are accusing the listing agents of bank owned property exactly that.
In a traditional sale, which is a rare event these days, the buyer’s agent presents an offer to the listing agent. The listing agent, in turn, presents the offer to the seller, who can reject, accept or make a counter offer to the buyer.
In contrast, REO (Real Estate Owned by the bank) contract negotiations take place with a bank, lender, or a representative hired to represent the lender. In contrast to a “normal” seller to buyer transaction, neither buyer or agent has the opportunity or ability to meet with the seller. Therefore, the buyer and their agent have no way of knowing whether their offer was actually presented to the lending institution, at all.
So you ask, “Why would a listing agent hide offers from the bank?” The answer is sadly cliche…”follow the money”.
Buyer agents allege that often, listing agents for the banks are also working with their own own buyers. If their buyer’s offer is accepted, the agent is paid two commissions, one as the selling agent, another for listing the property. So, if the listing agent holds back a higher offer in order to leave their client in the number one position, the agent “double dips” and earns double the money.
What can you do? Unfortunately, not much. The bank is unaware that other offers have been presented. Other buyer’s and their agents have no way of knowing if their offers were really presented, either. Usually buyers and agents are just told that their offer was rejected. Only after the closing can they see that their offer was better than the one the bank accepted and that the listing agent was also the selling agent.
If you suspect that you have been a victim of fraud or underhanded dealings, you can try to contact the lender. But, be prepared that most lenders want no contact with the public and even their own fraud departments show little interest in helping “would-be” buyers or their agents. And, as for the “listing agent for the bank”, it is highly unlikely that the of the fraud will suddenly get a change of heart and confess.
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Home Prices Drop, Again. Predict Further Declines.
Foreclosures UP. Unemployment UP. U.S. home prices DOWN.
Home prices in the United States dropped another 6.8 percent in April from the same period only one year earlier. The housing crash has now erased 26 percent of the equity in the median priced home, since the peak in July 2006. The silver lining for renters is that home affordability is at near record levels.
Economists predict that the market will continue to see more home price declines, despite $8000 tax incentives and $275 billon in funding to keep some owner’s in their homes.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank said US home prices may fall another 14 percent before they stabilize. Like sentiment was expressed by Robert Shiller, who co-founded the respected S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Many predict the worse declines could be even worse in New York and Orange County, CA.
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Housing Tidbits from President of the NAR
Charles McMillan, president of the National Association of Realtors, spoke in Ft. Worth, TX and reported to attendee’s that ”The dream of homeownership is alive and well in the US.”
Mr. McMillan began his real estate career in Ft. Worth, TX in 1983, one year after the Texas real estate market crashed in 1982. Although McMillan did not address it, Texas home prices have not recovered to pre-1982 levels over the past 27 years.
Highlights from the speech include:
- Consumers will buy houses if two conditions are met. The home and financing costs must be at a bargain, basement price levels.
- Keeping interest rates low and stable are necessary to stabilize the housing market.
- The tax credit is working. 43 percent of all property sales have been first-time buyers.
- Thanks to distressed property price declines of up to 52 percent, sales of existing home inventory has increased in CA, NV, AZ and FL.
- The two biggest issues facing the real estate industry going forward are appraisal issues and healthcare. Half of all real estate agents have no insurance.
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Is it Safe to Buy from Bankrupt Builder?
Dear InfoTube: My husband and I are considering the purchase of a townhome. We found a great unit, much larger than most for the money, but the builder has filed for bankruptcy. Also, the development is not entirely finished and it has a lot of unsold units.
We would like to take advantage of the $8000 tax credit and low interest rates, so we are in a hurry. Should we buy this unit? Your thoughts and expertise would be a big help.
Dear First Time Buyer: You don’t say where you live, but bankrupt builders are common in this market. The fact that the builder is insolvent doesn’t mean that the construction was sub-standard. But, it does mean you won’t have the builder backing up his work. Keep in mind that all warranties for appliances, roofing, flooring, etc. are backed by the manufacturer, not the builder, anyway, then make sure you have a very good home inspection before moving forward.
The issue of the unsold and unfinished development should probably be of more concern to you than construction or inspection problems. There are issues that you need to discuss before considering buying into a paritally vacant, multi-family development.
- How much do you want to live through?? Since the development is unfinished, it could take years before the project is completed. And, you will have to tolerate construction noise and dirt while the work is done.
- How long do you plan to live there? You need to be aware that prices may drop subtantially on the completed unsold units before everything is said and done. This means that you may lose your equity and owe more than the people who buy later for less money. Also, when the remaining new buildings are finished, you will face a lot of competition from new or newer units than the one you own. If you decide to buy here, make sure you can stay until everything is complete and the market has stabilized.
- What about the Homeowners Association? Unsold and vacant units mean that the association will need to cover their expenses. If the development is large and has ammenities such as pools, tennis courts, greenbelt area’s, etc. you may have only a few owners splitting the costs of insurance, maintenance and upkeep. This situation can dramatically raise dues beyond what most people are willing to pay. Verify the financial situation of the HOA and make sure you understand the by-laws before jumping into a situation with no real ceiling on future expenses.
I would offer you one piece of advise for any property you are considering, never buy a home because of tax incentives. Although the $8000 credit is very enticing, make sure you buy a home that is located in a good neighborhood and suits your families needs. Low interest rates, and the tax credit are strong motivators, but make sure you are buying the right home, in the right spot and at the right price.
Thank you for writing to InfoTube.net homes for sale and lease website. I hope I have answered some of your concerns and if you need more information, please let me know.
Hurricanes May Wipe Out Some Coastal Foreclosures
Story from Philadelphia Inquirer:Unoccupied, these homes would be defenseless in a storm; there will be no one to put up shutters, batten down garage doors, and otherwise secure homes. But that’s not all. Nearby homes and their residents would also be at risk from wind-propelled debris.
Lehigh Acres and other communities at the epicenter of the nation’s housing crisis are coming to realize that this year’s hurricane season, which began this month, represents yet another pitfall. Hurricanes could make hazards of thousands of foreclosed-upon houses, and their diminished value could decrease even more.
“Here’s your choice,” said Julie Rochman, president of the Tampa-based Institute for Business and Home Safety. “Spend a little bit of time and money to secure the properties to withstand wind and water, or not do the right thing and have the homes become damaged and are valued less.”
The Associated Press Economic Stress Index – a month-by-month analysis of foreclosure, bankruptcy and unemployment rates in more than 3,000 U.S. counties – confirms that some of the areas most likely to be struck by a hurricane are suffering the most in this recession.
In March, there were 281,691 homes in foreclosure in Florida and coastal counties in Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, and Virginia.
Lee County, where Manikchand lives, is among the hardest-hit counties in the country. A 22-year-old pharmacy student, he took advantage of a dismal housing market and bought a foreclosed duplex for $36,000.
In coming months, he and millions of others along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts will dutifully track tropical weather forecasts and stockpile batteries, flashlights, and tins of tuna, hoping that hurricanes blow harmlessly out to sea.
But who will secure all the foreclosed homes if a storm does approach? No one really knows.
In some cases, a property-management company hired by the bank could do the work. Or it could be a real estate agent, a homeowners’ association, or even resourceful neighbors who clear debris from yards and board windows.
Yet no state laws mandate who prepares buildings before a hurricane; even officials from the Florida Division of Emergency Management say that securing foreclosures isn’t a concern.
“It’s not an aspect that we really deal with,” said John Cherry, the agency’s external-affairs director. “Our No. 1 concern is life safety.”
Quick evacuation, not securing vacant homes, will be the priority if a major storm looms, others say. But shutterless homes can be a major safety hazard in a hurricane. And a region full of destroyed or heavily damaged homes would depress real estate values even further.
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