Archive for the ‘Mortages and Loans’ Category
Did First Time Buyer Tax Credit Help Sellers?
The $8000 Tax Credit for first time home buyer’s (people who have not owned a home in the last 3 years) expires on November 30, 2009. With the expiration date drawing near, the Realtor and builder lobby groups are pushing lawmakers to extend the program for another 6 months. If they are successful, it will cost taxpayers of nearly $15 BILLION.
“Yea” or “Nay”??? Before we cast our vote, we decided to find out whether the tax incentive successful or not? Specifically, did it persuade people to jump into the market? Would it be a good investment for taxpayers going forward?
According to a poll conducted by Zillow, the tax credit was persuasive.
- 18 percent of home buyers said the tax credit was the main reason they pushed to buy a home before November 30, 2010.
- Based on the number of first time buyer’s in the marketplace, a 6 month extension could persuade another 335,000 (18 percent) buyers to buy a home of their own.
- If the first time buyer credit is extended, home sales would likely increase 5 percent. Without it, sales would be down as much as 2 percent.
- Only 31 percent of first time buyers said the credit had no influence on their decision to purchase.
- 69 percent of buyers said the tax credit was important in motivating them to buy a home this year.
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Foreclosures Up. Home Prices Predicted to Fall Further
In August, InfoTube warned its readers about the New Wave of Foreclosures that would be pounding the market, further driving up inventory and eroding prices. Today, we learn that the Wall Street Journal agree’s with our accessment of the future market conditions for real estate.
Excerpt from the Wall Street Journal:
“The size of this shadow inventory is a source of concern and debate among real-estate agents and analysts who worry that when the supply is unleashed, it could interrupt the budding housing recovery and ignite a new wave of stress in the housing market . . . Analysts who track the shadow market have focused primarily on the gap between the number of seriously delinquent loans and the number of foreclosed homes for sale by mortgage companies. A loan is considered seriously delinquent, which typically means it is headed to foreclosure, if it is 90 days or more past due.
As of July, mortgage companies hadn’t begun the foreclosure process on 1.2 million loans that were at least 90 days past due, according to estimates prepared for The Wall Street Journal by LPS Applied Analytics, which collects and analyzes mortgage data. An additional 1.5 million seriously delinquent loans were somewhere in the foreclosure process, though the lender hadn’t yet acquired the property. The figures don’t include home-equity loans and other second mortgages.
Moreover, there were 217,000 loans in July where the borrower hadn’t made a payment in at least a year but the lender hadn’t begun the foreclosure process. In other words, 17% of home mortgages that are at least 12 months overdue aren’t in foreclosure, up from 8% a year earlier.”
What this means for Home Seller’s: Time is not your friend. The shadow of inventory of distressed property will continue to place downward pressure on home prices. Based upon our years of experience, we predict that home prices will fall an average of 7 percent in 2010.
If you need to sell your home, DO NOT chase the market down. Price your property aggressively, then market the home to as wide an audience as possible. To learn about the best way to reach the mass buying market, CLICK HERE.
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What is the Shadow Inventory of Homes?
A recent news article by Reuters states that “The percentage of U.S. homeowners who owe more than their house is worth will nearly double to 48 percent in 2011.”
Meaning? Half of us will be upside down, underwater, or whatever you want to call it over the next 2 years? Pretty scary. How do they know that? One indicator they use may be the Shadow Inventory of Homes, which will eventually enter the market place over the next 3 years.
So, what is a Shadow Inventory of Homes and How Does it Affect Future Home Values? Technically, a property is not in foreclosure until the lenders files against a deliquent loan. Lenders are purposefully not filing to foreclose, in order to control the present inventory by keeping homes off the market. This creates a Shadow Inventory of Homes in Default. Why do they do this? Simple economics, really. Less supply creates more demand (ie: higher prices) for the property they already have for sale.
Since, we know lenders are holding back the number of homes that should be in foreclosure, how many “shadow” distressed properties will come into the market in the future? Truefully, we can’t know the exact number. That is the reason it is referred to as a Shadow Inventory. We can all see that the problem is lurking out there, but we can’t identify the exact numbers or the amount of future damage because “only the shadow knows…”.
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Should You Use List Prices or Sales Data when Pricing Your Home?
A frequent question we receive about correctly pricing a home is “Should we use Comparable Listing Prices or Comparable Sales Data to correctly price our home?”
The answer is overwhelming, Comparable Sales Data.
Looking at the prices of listed property is a big mistake, when determining the correct asking price for a home. Take a moment and think about it. If the neighbors list price was motivating, the property would be Sold, not Still for Sale.
Always use accurate a Comparable Market Analysis (CMA) to correctly price your home. A CMA features only properties that have sold for all cash or a funded loan. This is important because many properities aren’t appraising or closing for anything near their “under contract” price. In our declining market, a home that is worth $250,000 today, may only be worth $220,000, 60 days later when it closes. Appraisers are aware of this fact and generally appraise very conservatively these days.
Click here To Read more about Appraisal Problems and What you Can do About it.
To obtain accurate Sales data about competing properties in your neighborhood, visit your local county tax assessor website. Or, research MLS data which can be viewed at sites like zillow.com.
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Frank Wants Condo Loan Rules
In what could be a “Here we go, again” scenario, Barney Frank (D) and Anthony Weiner (D) have ask Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to back off on tightening loan standards for condominum’s.
In March, Fannie and Freddie announced that they would no longer underwrite mortgages on condo’s located in buildings where less than 70 percent of the units were Sold. Their previous policy required that 51 percent of the units be Sold, before loans were guaranteed.
In addition, the mortgage giants announced that they will not purchase mortgages in buildings that have more than a 15 percent deliquency on association dues, or those in which one owner owns more than 10 percent of the units in the complex.
In a letter to both companies, Frank and Weiner warned that …70 percent occupancy…”may be too onerous” and the rules could have a “real chill on the ability to get these condos sold”. The two law makers asked the two companies to “make appropriate adjustments” to their underwriting standards for condos.
Is the tail wagging the dog, yet again??? On one hand, Fannie and Freddie have done their research on past loan failures and determined that their new underwriting criteria is essential in avoiding future financial trouble. On the other hand, Frank and Weiner fear the restrictions may stop condo sales in new developments where they are desperately needed.
Fannie and Freddie could not be reached for comment, but according to the Wall Street Journal, both are preparing a response to the lawmakers.
What do you think about relaxing the new loan standards for condo’s?? Thousands of our readers would love to know.
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Housing Tidbits from President of the NAR
Charles McMillan, president of the National Association of Realtors, spoke in Ft. Worth, TX and reported to attendee’s that ”The dream of homeownership is alive and well in the US.”
Mr. McMillan began his real estate career in Ft. Worth, TX in 1983, one year after the Texas real estate market crashed in 1982. Although McMillan did not address it, Texas home prices have not recovered to pre-1982 levels over the past 27 years.
Highlights from the speech include:
- Consumers will buy houses if two conditions are met. The home and financing costs must be at a bargain, basement price levels.
- Keeping interest rates low and stable are necessary to stabilize the housing market.
- The tax credit is working. 43 percent of all property sales have been first-time buyers.
- Thanks to distressed property price declines of up to 52 percent, sales of existing home inventory has increased in CA, NV, AZ and FL.
- The two biggest issues facing the real estate industry going forward are appraisal issues and healthcare. Half of all real estate agents have no insurance.
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Housing Crash Robs Senior Citizens
The worst housing market since the Great Depression is taking a huge toll on senior citizens in this country. The crash in housing values, especially in retirement haven’s such as Nevada, Florida, California and Arizona, is robbing these long, hard working Americans of their retirement and adequate health care.
While most people believe that seniors have no mortgage on their homes, the reality is that hundreds of thousands of retiree’s owe money on their homes. Even for those lucky enough to own their house outright, the unprecedented drop in home values means they have less equity to live on or exchange for a move to retirement housing or health care facilities.
- According to the AARP, 25.5 million people over the age of 50 have a mortgage on their home. More than 680,000 (which represents 30 percent of all distressed property) baby boomers are deliquent on their mortgage or are in the process of foreclosure.
- Many seniors have little saved, other than the equity in their homes. 36 percent of all retiree’s state that their savings and investment nest egg is less than $25,000, excluding home equity and benefit plans.
- Seniors banked on rising home prices and leveraged their primary asset through equity loans and reverse mortgages. Those that leveraged assets to afford retirement owe an average of $150,000 on their houses.
- Retirement communities and long term care facilities are suffering from the housing market, too. Seniors usually sell their homes to finance admission into senior housing facilities. Dire market conditions often mean no sale at all, or one at substantially discounted prices. Many people are left with no choice or options, forcing them to cancel plans to move to housing that fits their changing needs.
Although seniors and retiree’s are often overlooked in the news, the housing and stock market crash have taken a huge toll on their lives and well being. Most have worked all their lives to build secure nest eggs for their golden years, only to discover that half a lifetime of work and savings vanished in the blink of an eye.
Click Here to Read More from USA Today
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Appraisal Problems Hurt Homeowners and Kill Sales
Low home appraisals are becoming a huge obstacle for homeowners and sellers.
After years of succumbing to pressure to inflate appraisals for greedy lenders, anxious to make loans, it seems that appraisers have done an “about face”. Now, the biggest obstacle to selling a home or refinancing one is the appraisal. Like with all back lashes, it seems that the recently lax appraiser has now “over corrected” the problem to the determent of the housing market.
To read more about how to address low appraisal issues, Click HERE.
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Sellers Should Lower Price Expectations
In light of a new wave of foreclosures and distressed property sales, home seller’s may need to lower their expectations about home asking prices.
Recent reports find that nearly one in every four current home sellers (not seller’s of bank owned property) have dropped asking prices an average of 10.6 percent from their original listing price. In dollar terms, that is equal to another $27.4 BILLION, yes BILLION, slash in the equity of US homes. Ouch!
The good news for home seller’s is that higher interest rates and a rapidly approaching deadline for an $8000 tax credit is creating urgency among buyers. A recent uptick in sales proves that homes priced aggressively are selling very fast. But, homes priced above the competition continue to sit and languish on the market for months on end. Simply put, there is great demand in the market now…at the right price. Seller’s may need to sharpen their pencils, but buyers are actively purchasing homes.
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