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The latest news about home sales through October 31st, was nearly more scary than Halloween.  Here are the high or low lights, depending on your market position.

1. Existing home sales were up 11 percent, due mostly to the $8000 tax incentives.
2. Sales prices were down 11 percent.  Average US home price is now $177,900.
3. One third of all homes sales were short sales or foreclosures.
4. Foreclosures are up nearly 90 percent.  And, the banks reported that one-third of all their foreclosures are being held off the market.  Their strategy is to trickle more homes on the market, in hopes of keeping inventory lower, and therefore, prices higher.  Bottom Line.  There will be a huge second wave of Foreclosures hitting the market in 2010.
5. The loan crisis isn’t over, it’s just starting in new places with new people.  Most defaulting subprime borrowers are already on the street.  When picturing the new homeless, visualize the bigger, Prime borrowers.  Expect foreclosures to rise dramatically in Salt Lake, Provo and Boise.  Also, expect a new surge of foreclosures in upscale, step-up homes and communities. 

Thank you for visiting InfoTube.net homes for sale and rent FREE website.   We have helped Americans sell homes since 1988.  Anyone can post a property listing for FREE, on our site or Search for great deals in complete privacy.  We never sell or distribute user information, EVER.  We are a US manufacturer, who sells to US retailers and that pays our bills!  We don’t need to churn email lists!!

Case Shiller just released its latest report on the state of the residential estate market.  The good news is that home prices are falling more slowly.  The bad news is that that we have a little ways to go.

What the Numbers Show:

• Through August, 2009, the price of an average home sold in the US fell approximately 13 percent, year over year, from 2008 levels.
• Home prices have now dropped to 2003 valuation levels, wiping out 6 years of home appreciation.
• Since the peak in 2006, average home prices are down 33 percent.

What Do the Numbers Say About the Future??

• Prediction:  The “average” home price will likely fall more than 13 percent by year end.  Reason:  Home prices are always at their highest in the spring and summer.  Families move during this time of year and they buy the largest, most expensive properties.  As a result, Summer home sales skew the “average” price upward in the fall, but only temporarily.
• Prediction:  Home Sales will suffer a downturn due to the expiration of the $8000 First Time Buyer’s Credit.   So far this year, 350,000 buyers have been persuaded to purchase because of this incentive.   To read more about the success of the 1st Time Home Buyers Tax Credit, CLICK HERE.

Our Crystal Ball:  The pace of the fall is slowing, but the expiration of the tax credit and the ”shadow inventory” of another 1.5 Million foreclosures will continue to put downward pressure on the market in 2010.  As a result, we predict that 2010 home prices will decline 6-7 percent.  The upside is that nearly all buying risk is out of the market.  Interest rates are at historical lows.  Any increase in rates would erase the possible gain a buyer would achieve from correctly timing the exact bottom…even if the timing were perfect. 

Bottom Line:  If you plan to buy a home within the next year, now is a great time.   Chose the best home, in the best location and the one that you can easily afford.  Live and enjoy the home for at least 5 years and you will likely be patting yourself on the back for a job well done.

Thank you for visiting InfoTube.net homes for sale and lease FREE website.  We have been in the business of connection Sellers and Buyers for 20 Years.  Chances are that we can Help You, too!!

  

In August, InfoTube warned its readers about the New Wave of Foreclosures that would be pounding the market, further driving up inventory and eroding prices.  Today, we learn that the Wall Street Journal agree’s with our accessment of the future market conditions for real estate.

Excerpt from the Wall Street Journal: 

“The size of this shadow inventory is a source of concern and debate among real-estate agents and analysts who worry that when the supply is unleashed, it could interrupt the budding housing recovery and ignite a new wave of stress in the housing market . . . Analysts who track the shadow market have focused primarily on the gap between the number of seriously delinquent loans and the number of foreclosed homes for sale by mortgage companies. A loan is considered seriously delinquent, which typically means it is headed to foreclosure, if it is 90 days or more past due.

As of July, mortgage companies hadn’t begun the foreclosure process on 1.2 million loans that were at least 90 days past due, according to estimates prepared for The Wall Street Journal by LPS Applied Analytics, which collects and analyzes mortgage data. An additional 1.5 million seriously delinquent loans were somewhere in the foreclosure process, though the lender hadn’t yet acquired the property. The figures don’t include home-equity loans and other second mortgages.

Moreover, there were 217,000 loans in July where the borrower hadn’t made a payment in at least a year but the lender hadn’t begun the foreclosure process. In other words, 17% of home mortgages that are at least 12 months overdue aren’t in foreclosure, up from 8% a year earlier.”

What this means for Home Seller’s:  Time is not your friend.  The shadow of inventory of distressed property will continue to place downward pressure on home prices.  Based upon our years of experience, we predict that home prices will fall an average of 7 percent in 2010.  

If you need to sell your home, DO NOT chase the market down.  Price your property aggressively, then market the home to as wide an audience as possible.  To learn about the best way to reach the mass buying market, CLICK HERE. 

Thank you for visiting InfoTube.net.  We have been connecting buyers with sellers since 1989.  We can help you, too.

Dear InfoTube:   My husband and I are considering the purchase of a townhome.  We found a great unit, much larger than most for the money, but the builder has filed for bankruptcy.  Also, the development is not entirely finished and it has a lot of unsold units.

We would like to take advantage of the $8000 tax credit and low interest rates, so we are in a hurry.  Should we buy this unit?  Your thoughts and expertise would be a big help. 

Dear First Time Buyer:  You don’t say where you live, but bankrupt builders are common in this market.  The fact that the builder is insolvent doesn’t mean that the construction was sub-standard.   But, it does mean you won’t have the builder backing up his work.  Keep in mind that all warranties for appliances, roofing, flooring, etc. are backed by the manufacturer, not the builder, anyway, then make sure you have a very good home inspection before moving forward.

The issue of the unsold and unfinished development should probably be of more concern to you than construction or inspection problems.   There are issues that you need to discuss before considering buying into a paritally vacant, multi-family development.

1. How much do you want to live through??  Since the development is unfinished, it could take years before the project is completed.  And, you will have to tolerate construction noise and dirt while the work is done.
2. How long do you plan to live there?  You need to be aware that prices may drop subtantially on the completed unsold units before everything is said and done.  This means that you may lose your equity and owe more than the people who buy later for less money.  Also, when the remaining new buildings are finished, you will face a lot of competition from new or newer units than the one you own.  If you decide to buy here, make sure you can stay until everything is complete and the market has stabilized.
3. What about the Homeowners Association?  Unsold and vacant units mean that the association will need to cover their expenses.  If the development is large and has ammenities such as pools, tennis courts, greenbelt area’s, etc. you may have only a few owners splitting the costs of insurance, maintenance and upkeep.  This situation can dramatically raise dues beyond what most people are willing to pay.  Verify the financial situation of the HOA and make sure you understand the by-laws before jumping into a situation with no real ceiling on future expenses.

I would offer you one piece of advise for any property you are considering, never buy a home because of tax incentives.  Although the $8000 credit is very enticing, make sure you buy a home that is located in a good neighborhood and suits your families needs.  Low interest rates, and the tax credit are strong motivators, but make sure you are buying the right home, in the right spot and at the right price.

Thank you for writing to InfoTube.net homes for sale and lease website.  I hope I have answered some of your concerns and if you need more information, please let me know.

Foreclosures and loan delinquency’s wreck havoc on the budgets of Homeowner’s Associations (HOA’s) across the country. 

Many condominium communities are glutted with nonpaying units that swamp their operating budgets, force cutbacks on promised services and increase monthly dues for owners who are paying their mortgage and association dues.

Crisis In Florida:

In Florida, the land of the condo dweller, things are spinning out of control for HOA’s and property owners.  As a result, Florida constituents are turning to legislators for an help they can provide.

Under the current system in Florida and other states, lenders can avoid paying homeowner’s fee’s until they foreclose and become the owner of the unit.   Lenders face a continuing avalanche of foreclosures and loan defaults, which means that up to 2 or more years can pass before the property transfer gets through the court system.  

During the lengthy legal process, homeowners often continue living in the units, using the ammenities and facilities for free.  Some even rent the units for income, after they have stopped making payments on the property.  Many associations are forced to cover the costs of water, cable, laundry, lawn and pool maintenance and garbage collection for paying and non-paying owner’s alike.  To make up for the added expenses, paying unit owner’s have to foot the bill or the entire association goes down.   

And, things get even more complicated.  Some banks stall on taking title to units because they have a cap that limits the amount of past-due fee’s they have to repay to 6 months or 1 percent of the original loan amount.   Some luxury condo associations report that some units have as much as $50,000 in unpaid fee’s by the time the bank takes ownership.

Downward Spiral:

Lenders are also denying financing for financially unstable buildings, which essentially means the property can not be sold, even if a buyer is found.  In January, mortgage giant Fannie Mae said it would no longer fund loans in buildings if more than 15 percent of the units were 30 or more days past due with their association fee’s.  

The problem has reached a crisis point for many HOA’s that are struggling to cover basic utilites such as water and electricity.   If they raise fee’s on paying owners for the shortfalls, they risk pushing even more residents into delinquency.  Most owners are already upside down on the property and they simply can not afford a higher payment.

Renting out units could offset loses, but rentals are usually prohibited or they are limited to a very small percentage of the number of units in the complex.  Furthermore, lenders such as Fannie Mae also deny funding for buildings that are less than 51 percent owner occupied.   So, raising money with rent income does not appear to be a viable solution, nor does it maintain the quality of life for the paying residents.

The housing crisis has uncovered many problems that we have never encountered before, but the number of failing HOA’s is an imminent crisis.   Unfortunately, it isn’t simple and if solving it isn’t done correctly, more permanent damage may occur.

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