Posts Tagged ‘house price predictions’
8 Signs that Point to Real Estate Recovery in 2012
We finally have an avalanche of positive news regarding on the real estate and housing market for 2012.
- Foreclosure activity in 2011 is down more than 50% lower in several states, including New Jersey, Maryland and Florida. Realty Trac
- The much feared “shadow inventory” of foreclosures declined dramatically in 2011. In December 2012, 2.2 million properties were in some stage of foreclosure. In September 2011, that number dropped to 1.5 million units…or a whopping 32% in nine months. Realtytrac
- Realtors in some hard hit area’s, such as Michigan and southern California, are reporting a shortage of housing inventory and a return to bidding wars in tight markets.
- Wall Street thinks the worst is over. Stocks of the nation’s five largest, publicly traded, home builders are at 52 week highs signaling an upswing in home construction in 2012. In addition, the home builders have been snapping up deals on land and abandoned subdivisions in anticipation of increased buyer demand. CNBC
- Realtors and home builders are getting a boost from rising rents, as Americans realize that owning a home is often less expensive than renting one. And, while future rent increases have no ceiling on how high they can go, ownership locks in housing expenses and equity is created as the loan balance decreases each month.
- Legal issues, property maintenance and other issues complicating the foreclosure process will push banks and lenders to approve more short sales in 2012, further reducing housing inventory.
- Interest rates will remain at historical lows in 2012, which allows more people to qualify for a home and cheap money buys more house for the same monthly payment.
- Foreclosure activity was down more than 30 percent in 2011. Fewer than 2 million properties foreclosure notices were filed in 2011, down from 2.9 million property filings in 2010. Realty Trac
InfoTube believes that this news spells OPPORTUNITY for home buyers, home builders, investors and real estate agents. Home prices and affordability are excellent, yet buyers and investors can still find good bargains. Today’s smart home buyers will feel like geniuses in ten years when the see what inflation has done to home prices.
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Prediction – Top 10 Housing Markets in 2011
The Housing Predictor has released its forecast for the Top Housing Markets in 2011.
According to the companies research, the top 10 markets had two fundamental things in common. First, homes prices never rose to nosebleed levels like they did in the hard hit area’s such as Florida, California, Nevada and Arizona. Secondly, these area’s are experiencing fewer foreclosures and loan defaults than other regions of the United States.
The 2011 Top 10 Housing Markets in the U.S. are:
City Forecast
- 1. Portland, ME 3.6%
- 2. Kansas City, KS 3.5%
- 3. Tri-Cities, WA 3.4%
- 4. Omaha, NE 3.3%
- 5. Fargo, ND 3.3%
- 6. New Orleans, LA 3.2%
- 7. Iowa City, IA 3.2%
- 8. Columbia, MD 3.1%
- 9. Bellevue, NE 3.1%
- 10 Bismark, ND 3.1%
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Where will the Next Real Estate Boom Occur?
Where will the next real estate boom happen? According to research conducted by Patrick Doherty, of the New America foundation, it will likely be right in your home town.
The Great Recession has highlighted a fundamental change in what consumers do want: homes in central cities and closer-in suburbs where one can walk to stores and mass transit. Such “walkable urban” real estate has experienced less than half the average decline in price from the housing peak. Ten years ago, the highest property values per square foot in the Washington, D.C., metro area were in car-dependent suburbs like Great Falls, Virginia. Today, walkable city neighborhoods like Dupont Circle command the highest per-square-foot prices, followed by dense suburban neighborhoods near subway stops in places like Bethesda, Maryland, and Arlington, Virginia. Similarly, in Denver, property values in the high-end car-dependent suburb of Highland Ranch are now lower than those in the redeveloped LoDo neighborhood near downtown. These trend lines have been evident in many cities for a number of years; at some point during the last decade, the lines crossed. The last time the lines crossed was in the 1960s—and they were heading the opposite direction.
There are some obvious reasons for the growing demand for walkable neighborhoods: ever-worsening traffic congestion, memories of the 2008 spike in gasoline prices, and the fact that many cities have become more attractive places to live thanks to falling crime rates and the replacement of heavy industries with cleaner, higher-end service and professional economies.
But the biggest factor, one that will quickly pick up speed in the next few years, is demographic. The baby boomers and their children, the millennial generation, are looking for places to live and work that reflect their current desires and life needs. Boomers are downsizing as their children leave home while the millennials, or generation Y, are setting out on their careers with far different housing needs and preferences. Both of these huge demographic groups want something that the U.S. housing market is not currently providing: small one- to three-bedroom homes in walkable, transit-oriented, economically dynamic, and job-rich neighborhoods.
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5 Tips for Selling a Home in the Fall
Fall is a marvelous time of the year and an excellant time for househunting. The air is crisp, the leaves are changing, the holidays are just around the corner and every is feeling in the mood to nest. Make the most of the season!!
1. Change those Listing Photo’s to Show Off Those Pumpkins, Mums and Falling Leaves.
2. Days Are Getting Shorter…which means your rooms are getting darker.
- Dark rooms don’t show well. The simple solution…turn on more lights. Consider changing out your lightbulbs to ones that project warmer (yellow) versus a cooler (blue) tint.
- If your rooms are painted a dark color, lighten them up with a fresh coat of a light, neutral paint.
- Do some spring cleaning and wash the windows if they aren’t clean
3. Spruce up Your Curb Appeal
- Make sure all summer annuals and perrenials have been pulled up or cut back. If the bare spots look bad, consider planting mums, pansies or kales in their place.
- Keep the leaves raked up.
- Place a few mums and/or pumpkins by the front door or steps.
4. Everyone Loves Fireplaces…so fire up your fireplace to add warmth and charm.
5. Holiday Decorating – Less is More
- Fall – Thanksgiving decor is more neutral than Christmas decorations…but don’t overdo. Limit the amount of decorations to insure that buyers see the house.
- Halloween is great fun for kids and adults, alike, but don’t overwhelm buyer’s with screaming witches, howling goblins and motion activated rats. Too much Halloween can be very distracting to buyer’s trying to see a home for the first time.
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Wall Street Gobbling up South Florida Condo’s in Bulk
The recently signed Distressed Condominium Relief Act of Florida has Wall Street and bulk investors diving into the Florida condo market.
Florida implented the act on July 1st and the result has been overwhelmingly successful, so far. The first thing the act did was give condo associations the right to demand deliquent renters pay rents directly to the association. Even more significant, the law eliminated developer liability. Prior law defined a developer as anyone who sold or leased more than 7 units in a condo in one year. Under the old law, “Developers” faced potential unlimited liabilities for such things as construction warranties..
By removing the unlimited liabilty for bulk investors, major Wall Street firms, which represent billions in assets and capital, descended on South Florida and began gobbling up condo units in bulk. “Since the law went into place, activity has been “off the charts”, said Peter Zaleswski, founder of Condo Vultures. “We’re moving away from a situation where it’s 10 oe 20 units in a bulk buy, to one where it’s 100 or 200 or even 300 units,” Zalewski said. “You have several Wall Street funds competing on the same projects. It’s all because of the change in the new law.”
Good news for Florida homeowners and builders…Zalewski said the change has been drastic. “I would challenge you to find one of the largest groups on Wall Street who’s not looking into South Florida right now.” Zalewski predicted…”I would anticipate you see some huge numbers put on the board by the end of the year.”
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Just Released Housing Snapshot for Major Cities
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Real Estate Back to Normal on the Gulf Coast
On Wednesday, analysts at Keefe Bruyette & Woods advised clients that real estate values along the Gulf of Mexico “will likely not get hit any harder” due to the BP oil spill.
The analysts came to their final conclusion after walking the beaches on the coast, talking to local residents and meeting with the large regional banks. “We barely found any oil at all on the shore or in the Gulf,” analysts said. “We walked away feeling that the hype surrounding the spill was overdone, but that significant economic issues still exist in the region.”
InfoTube.net is very happy to report this good news for all coastal property owners, brokers and residents. Thank you for visiting our website! If you’re looking for information about InfoTubes, InfoBoxes, Flat Fee MLS, Realtor.com uploads, Free Legal Forms and Contracts…you’ve found the right website.
Top 10 Pro Business States for 2010
 America must be an integral part of global business if it is to remain a superpower, but “thus far we have done a terrible job of integrating ourselves in the 21st century marketplace,” says geoeconomist and corporate relocation expert Dr. Ronald R. Pollina in the just-released Pollina Corporate Top 10 Pro-Business States for 2010: The Great American Job Purge.In the annual study of job retention and creation by the 50 states and the federal government, Dr. Pollina emphasizes “the effort to make America more business-friendly must come from all levels of government. Many states are doing such a poor job of creating a pro-business environment that they can’t even come close to competing with each other, much less compete globally.” There are, however, states that serve as a model for the rest of the country. Brent Pollina, Vice President of Park Ridge, Illinois-based Pollina Corporate Real Estate and author of this year’s study, names Virginia as “America’s most pro-business state” followed closely by Utah, Wyoming, South Carolina, and North Carolina,. For the seventh consecutive year, California ranked dead last. “In recent years, we have lost millions of the nation’s manufacturing, technology and high-wage service jobs, and this trend is escalating.” says Brent Pollina. “The federal budget deficit, trade deficits, low interest rates, family debt and inadequate educational systems are and will continue to have a negative impact on the U.S. economic, political and military strength in the 21st Century. “We are deluding ourselves if we believe that we have not been impacted already, both socially and economically, and that our government, along with American ingenuity and tenacity, will correct for any losses. This report details how many state governments have the resources, but not the will, to keep Americans employed in high paying 21st century jobs.” The study evaluates and ranks states based on 31 factors including taxes, human resources, right-to-work legislation, energy costs, infrastructure spending, workers compensation laws, economic incentive programs and state economic development efforts. |
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2010 Top 10 Pro Business Rankings
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Is the Worst Over for Real Estate?
Things are better in real estate—better because homes are selling, prices have stabilized and people are moving forward with their lives. At least that’s how things look today. Tomorrow is anybody’s guess.
And I really mean that it’s a guess. Everyone wants to know if the worst is over, if values will start rising again, if the pace of sales will pick up to 2005 levels.
We all see the papers, websites and TV news reports. And just like the weather, every day the forecasts change. Prices stabilizing, prices rising, prices falling, foreclosures will double, mortgage rates will rise, unemployment will worsen, the recession is over, great time to buy… Just like the stock market (or any other market), there are many pundits and forecasters but no one can really say what will happen.
Among all this uncertainty, here’s my best advice for people considering selling their house: Don’t try to time the market. Buy or sell when your life calls for it.
There are many life events that can make this “the right time,” like a new baby, retirement, marriage/divorce, empty-nest or job transfer, for starters.
Be realistic and make every effort to use the best real estate agent, the best staging, the best marketing strategies, the best market knowledge and best negotiating to get the best deal you possibly can. Although sellers are always hopeful for a higher price, you’ve got to understand that the market will never let you get more for your house than it is worth.
Hanging on to a property hoping for better market conditions usually works against you. I saw a situation last year with someone who said he wanted to sell his home of nearly 20 years (he had accumulated a lot of equity in this particular house). It was time for him to sell and move on (empty nest) to a new chapter in his life but he refused to put a reasonable price on his house, preferring to believe that it was worth more than others in a declining market. Needless to say, he was frustrated it didn’t sell, and it’s on the market again this year.
If he had been realistic about his home’s value, he would have sold it in 2009 and invested the proceeds in the stock market. Instead of frustration, this story would have ended much more happily, with a more than 50 percent return on his money!
Why this example? Because last year no one could know that the real estate market would continue its decline and that the stock market would recover so dramatically. Markets are uncertain by nature. For this seller, things could have worked out much better if he worked with the market instead of against it.
More often than not, when life says “it’s time to move,” that really does make it the best time for you to sell.
Rob Gutman is a real estate agent at Keller Williams Realty and also writes the blog Real Estate Chocolate. You can contact him directly at rgutman@gmail.com.
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BP Pays Claims for Lost Rental Income, Commissions and Property Damage
This week we are covering the fallout from the BP oil spill, as it relates to real estate and the people who derive their livlihoods from it.
A report from BP shows that $157,942 was paid through June 11, 2010 for real estate related claims in the state of Florida. While we were looking for details which might outline a precedent for future payments to victims, the report was vague and had few details. Categories for claims included items such as swimming pools, plants, rental property, real estate sales, home structure and diminished value. When BP was ask to provide better definitions for the categories, they said they didn’t have one, but hoped to by Monday. We will keep you posted.
As far as Florida real estate is concerned, 1019 claims have been filed in Florida with regard to losses to rental property. To date, payments totaling $145,744 have been paid on 393 of the claims. In real estate sales, 199 claims have been made. Two were paid out for a total of $9698. Dimished value had 14 claims so far, with nothing being paid out. 3 claims were made for structural damage with one being paid for $2500.
Bart Harrison of Clay, Ala., filed his first claim on Wednesday morning for lost rental income on his coastal property and expected to have a check for $1,010 within a few hours. The only documentation required was tax returns and rental histories for his units, which were both easy to provide. “The guy I talked to was knowledgeable and respectful. It seemed like he really wanted to write a check and please me since it was my first time in,” Harrison said.
The one certainty is that the real estate claims will start piling up as more and more coastal area’s are affected by the spill. Bloomberg reported that the oil spill could drive down Gulf Coast property values by 10 percent for at least three years. CoStar Group has estimated real estate losses of $4.3 Billion along the 600 mile stretch from the Louisana bayous to Clearwater, FL
To Determine if you or someone you know may have a legimate claim against BP for losses related to real estate…..Click Here for a list of Eligible BP Claim Information and BP Required Filing Documentation
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Gulf Oil Spill Real Estate Impact – Part 1
This week InfoTube.net blog will focus on the impact that the gulf oil spill from a real estate perspective. Today, we focus on the events and conditions that have already occurred. We will conclude with expert predictions about what will follow in years to come.
We welcome feedback, comments and reports from the front line and encourage you to add InfoTube.net blog to your rss reader for future updates on conditions in the gulf.
CBS News Reports:
Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama are already taking a hit due to reduced tourist bookings, but with its 770 miles of Gulf Coast line, Florida stands to lose the most which is why the state is running pro-tourism ads.
Officials say Alabama’s tourism is down 50 percent so far and imagery that shows a large plume of oil heading this way could wreck Florida’s season as well.
Just a 10 percent decline in tourism related business in Florida’s 23 Gulf Shore counties could cost the Sunshine state $2.2 billion in revenue.
Commentary: Anytime rental vacancies rise, property values drop. In addition to the immediate problems created by the lack of rental cash flow, property owners are faced with a rapid drop in the value of their property. Real estate experts in the hardest hit area’s report that property values have already dropped a whopping 20-30 percent during the last 63 days. And, whether any prospective buyers can obtain financing and insurance on the affected coastal area’s is unclear.
Whether BP will compensate property owners in the gulf for lost property value remains uncertain. To date, the matter has not been formally addressed. BP is self-insured, but pollution is usually excluded as a covered peril in property insurance policies. And, standard commercial and home insurance policies usually cover property damage only, not claims for lost value.
Thank you for visiting InfoTube.net. Our focus this week will continue with the real estate crisis that is washing up on the pristine beaches in gulf, along with the dead wildlife and waves of petroleum and a special blog on what you can do to fight back!!
Finished Building Lots. The Next Boom.
Are you one of the millions of people looking for the next boom in real estate? If so, you might want to consider abandoned subdivisions. Savvy investment groups and individuals have been snapping up finished building lots like candy.
Why? There are so many incomplete developments for sale, that finished building lots are being dumped onto the market at 50 cents or less on the dollar. Small builders or investors, who have the time to hunt down smaller projects, or buy the fill in lots that don’t interest big investors, are doing even better. They report buying quality building lots at 20 – 30 cents on the dollar.
The Law of Supply and Demand.
Supply: The two to three year supply of unsold building lots has stopped developers from investing in more land, finishing projects or starting new ones.
Demand: The United Stated needs 1.2 million new homes for the next 10 years, just to keep pace with population growth. During the past few years, builders have constructed only 500,000-600,000 homes per year, or less than half the amount needed to keep pace. When housing demand rises, the need for finished lots will be painfully obvious and builders will pay a premium to get their hands on them.
Investment in building lots was significant by the end of 2009. Before you jump in and invest in a vacant building lot, make sure your expectations are reasonable. Other than the Golden Rule…Location, Location, Location…, keep in mind, generally, land can not be flipped. Plan to hold on to the property for a minimum of one year and up to three. If you are considering unfinished lots, plan to wait a minimum of three to four years before ringing the register.
MORE…..Check back with us tomorrow. We’ll tell you how to spot a good price for a lot and buy below the finishing costs!
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Good news. Bad news. Real Estate Mixed Bag in 2010
The housing market has been sending some serious mixed signals for months now. The one certainty is that the real estate market is in flux, and will likely be for months to come.
FIRST, THE GOOD NEWS:
- Although interest rates have been increasing, they remain at historical lows. This is good news for buyers who act quickly, as none of the experts expect rates to remain this low later in 2010.
- The $8000 tax credit for first time buyers was expanded to include existing home owners, as well. The timing of this offer is crucial. Buyers must close on or before June of 2010 to collect their free cash.
- Home prices and demand have steadily increased month over month throughout October of 2009.
- Although some markets may slide a bit further, we are definitely in the last innings of the crash. Even if we have a bit more downward pressure, 2010 will be the bottom of the housing crash.
- Home seller’s who use the power of the MLS and the Internet to realistically market their properties, will see more buyers and will have much more pricing power than they’ve experienced in years.
- In markets, such as Phoenix, you can buy a new home for $800 a month, making it cheaper to own a home than rent it.
THE BAD NEWS:
- According to Bob Curran, director at Fitch Ratings, a mountain of foreclosures will hit the market in 2010. And, a 10.5 percent unemployment rate will cause a surge in new homeowners that will fall into default.
- Per Lawrence Yun, chief economists with the National Association of Realtors (NAR) expects a record 3 million foreclosures in 2010, up from 2.1 million in 2009.
- John Burns, president of John Burns Real Estate Consulting, is even more bearish. He thinks 50 percent more people will lose their homes to the bank than they did last year. Why? Lenders were under pressure to postpone foreclosures in favor of loan modifications. And, the banks weren’t staffed to handle all the defaulted loans, as they now are.
- The Office of Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervison released a report that said the results of the loan modification program was disappointing. 61 percent of the loans that were modified are now in default again. The offices predict another wave of foreclosures in 2010, which could cause prices to fall another 5 – 10 percent before the market stablilizes.
- The Federal Reserve plans to end the program that has kept mortgage rates so low for so long. Rates have already passed the 5 percent mark in anticipation.
- The first time buyer and existing home buyer tax credit program expires in early 2010. To qualify for the stimulus, buyers must purchase by April and close no later than June of 2010. This program has certainly lured buyers into the market place and its expiration will take a toll on demand in the 3rd and 4th quarters.
InfoTube Prediction: Since the housing market peak in the summer of 2006, home prices have dropped over 30 percent on average. Prices in some markets such as Las Vegas, Phoenix and parts of Florida and California have fallen more than 60 percent. Some markets have further to go, but we are in the final innings of the crash. Even if we go lower, we will see the bottom in 2010. But, don’t look for a rebound off the bottom. The damage was too deep and too systemic for a “V” shape recovery. The housing market will skate along the bottom for quite a while and it will probably be 2013 before most people notice any rebound.
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Pending Home Sales Up Again!!!
Pending home sales were up nearly 4 percent over September levels. More evidence that the housing market hit bottom months ago, October pending sales were a whopping 31.8 percent higher than in October 2008.
Pending sales reflect the number of pre-owned homes that are “under contract” but not yet closed. Since homes are typically “contract pending” for a month or so, closing on these homes should take place in November or December.
Before we Pop Champagne… Keep in mind that tight credit and dubious appraisals are wrecking havoc on closings. But, compared to a year ago, SALES of 6.1 million EXISTING HOMES means sales are up a HUGE 23 percent this year. So CHEERS!!!
If you are in the market for a home, there will never be a better time to buy than now. Home sales are predicted to rise 11 percent in 2010 and 4 percent price increases are expected in most area’s of the country. Another motivating factor for would-be investors and buyers,…it will be very difficult for the Fed to hold interest rates this low going forward.
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