Posts Tagged ‘housing market’
Finished Building Lots. The Next Boom.
Are you one of the millions of people looking for the next boom in real estate? If so, you might want to consider abandoned subdivisions. Savvy investment groups and individuals have been snapping up finished building lots like candy.
Why? There are so many incomplete developments for sale, that finished building lots are being dumped onto the market at 50 cents or less on the dollar. Small builders or investors, who have the time to hunt down smaller projects, or buy the fill in lots that don’t interest big investors, are doing even better. They report buying quality building lots at 20 – 30 cents on the dollar.
The Law of Supply and Demand.
Supply: The two to three year supply of unsold building lots has stopped developers from investing in more land, finishing projects or starting new ones.
Demand: The United Stated needs 1.2 million new homes for the next 10 years, just to keep pace with population growth. During the past few years, builders have constructed only 500,000-600,000 homes per year, or less than half the amount needed to keep pace. When housing demand rises, the need for finished lots will be painfully obvious and builders will pay a premium to get their hands on them.
Investment in building lots was significant by the end of 2009. Before you jump in and invest in a vacant building lot, make sure your expectations are reasonable. Other than the Golden Rule…Location, Location, Location…, keep in mind, generally, land can not be flipped. Plan to hold on to the property for a minimum of one year and up to three. If you are considering unfinished lots, plan to wait a minimum of three to four years before ringing the register.
MORE…..Check back with us tomorrow. We’ll tell you how to spot a good price for a lot and buy below the finishing costs!
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Good news. Bad news. Real Estate Mixed Bag in 2010
The housing market has been sending some serious mixed signals for months now. The one certainty is that the real estate market is in flux, and will likely be for months to come.
FIRST, THE GOOD NEWS:
- Although interest rates have been increasing, they remain at historical lows. This is good news for buyers who act quickly, as none of the experts expect rates to remain this low later in 2010.
- The $8000 tax credit for first time buyers was expanded to include existing home owners, as well. The timing of this offer is crucial. Buyers must close on or before June of 2010 to collect their free cash.
- Home prices and demand have steadily increased month over month throughout October of 2009.
- Although some markets may slide a bit further, we are definitely in the last innings of the crash. Even if we have a bit more downward pressure, 2010 will be the bottom of the housing crash.
- Home seller’s who use the power of the MLS and the Internet to realistically market their properties, will see more buyers and will have much more pricing power than they’ve experienced in years.
- In markets, such as Phoenix, you can buy a new home for $800 a month, making it cheaper to own a home than rent it.
THE BAD NEWS:
- According to Bob Curran, director at Fitch Ratings, a mountain of foreclosures will hit the market in 2010. And, a 10.5 percent unemployment rate will cause a surge in new homeowners that will fall into default.
- Per Lawrence Yun, chief economists with the National Association of Realtors (NAR) expects a record 3 million foreclosures in 2010, up from 2.1 million in 2009.
- John Burns, president of John Burns Real Estate Consulting, is even more bearish. He thinks 50 percent more people will lose their homes to the bank than they did last year. Why? Lenders were under pressure to postpone foreclosures in favor of loan modifications. And, the banks weren’t staffed to handle all the defaulted loans, as they now are.
- The Office of Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervison released a report that said the results of the loan modification program was disappointing. 61 percent of the loans that were modified are now in default again. The offices predict another wave of foreclosures in 2010, which could cause prices to fall another 5 – 10 percent before the market stablilizes.
- The Federal Reserve plans to end the program that has kept mortgage rates so low for so long. Rates have already passed the 5 percent mark in anticipation.
- The first time buyer and existing home buyer tax credit program expires in early 2010. To qualify for the stimulus, buyers must purchase by April and close no later than June of 2010. This program has certainly lured buyers into the market place and its expiration will take a toll on demand in the 3rd and 4th quarters.
InfoTube Prediction: Since the housing market peak in the summer of 2006, home prices have dropped over 30 percent on average. Prices in some markets such as Las Vegas, Phoenix and parts of Florida and California have fallen more than 60 percent. Some markets have further to go, but we are in the final innings of the crash. Even if we go lower, we will see the bottom in 2010. But, don’t look for a rebound off the bottom. The damage was too deep and too systemic for a “V” shape recovery. The housing market will skate along the bottom for quite a while and it will probably be 2013 before most people notice any rebound.
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Pending Home Sales Up Again!!!
Pending home sales were up nearly 4 percent over September levels. More evidence that the housing market hit bottom months ago, October pending sales were a whopping 31.8 percent higher than in October 2008.
Pending sales reflect the number of pre-owned homes that are “under contract” but not yet closed. Since homes are typically “contract pending” for a month or so, closing on these homes should take place in November or December.
Before we Pop Champagne… Keep in mind that tight credit and dubious appraisals are wrecking havoc on closings. But, compared to a year ago, SALES of 6.1 million EXISTING HOMES means sales are up a HUGE 23 percent this year. So CHEERS!!!
If you are in the market for a home, there will never be a better time to buy than now. Home sales are predicted to rise 11 percent in 2010 and 4 percent price increases are expected in most area’s of the country. Another motivating factor for would-be investors and buyers,…it will be very difficult for the Fed to hold interest rates this low going forward.
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Home Buyer Motivation at Highest Level in Years
According to a survey by Move.com, 12.1 percent of homebuyers intend to purchase an investment property this year, compared to only 5.6 percent of buyers polled in April. 
The percentage of investors shopping for property also jumps higher when it comes to foreclosed property. 42 percent of foreclosure buyers are purchasing for an investment. 57.6 percent of foreclosure shoppers plan to live in the home they buy.
The survey also shows that 23.6 percent of investors and buyers believe that home prices are already as low as they will go. Nearly 20 percent feel a sense of urgency when searching for a bargain.
Another factor motivating home buyer’s off the sidelines is the real threat of rising interest rates. Wall Street guru’s, who agree on very little, warn that lending rates will rise in the near future. With real estate prices at their lowest levels, buyers risk much more in waiting to purchase, than they do by locking in record low rates on their loan.
Prediction: We believe the leading indicator of an interest rate hike will be falling unemployment claims. When unemployment claim filings fall below 500,000 per month, a rate hike is likely!
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Home Buyer Tax Credit Extended.
Great news for home buyers, sellers and owners, alike. The homebuyer tax credit has been expanded to include step up buyers, who have owned a home for 5 years. It also extends the tax credit through the end of 2010.
GREAT NEWS!
It appears that Senate Democrats have recognized the tremendous value of the First Time Homebuyers Tax Credit and odds are it will be renewed soon. At this time, it is believed that the credit will allow anyone purchasing a home, by April 30, 2010, to participate and receive the full credit available.
The credit will continue until the end of 2010, but the amount of tax credit will drop by 2 percent every 90 days. The graduated benefit should help the housing market recover into and through the 2010 summer selling season.
Here is the text of the story as reported in Bloomberg News today:
Senate Democrats on Board with Credit Extension
Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) says Senate Democrats have agreed to extend the first-time home buyer tax credit. The latest version extends the program to home sales signed not closed by April 30. Purchasers would have another 60 days to close the sale. The credit will also be expanded to include so-called step-up buyers who have lived in their current home for at least five years.
The credit would be cut slightly to a $7,290 cap. Income eligibility for first-time home buyers would stay the same, but it would rise for step-up buyers to $125,000 for individuals and $250,000 for couples.
Source: Bloomberg News, Dawn Kopecki and Ryan Donmoyer (10/27/2009)
Friday Good News for Housing!!
The stock market is back to 10,000, the level it reached in 1999. Sales of existing homes were up a whopping 8 percent, to the highest level seen in 2 years. The news is abuzz about an extension of the First Time Buyer Tax Credit….But, is it time to “Party like it’s 1999″???
Here is a snapshot of Friday’s real estate news. You decide.
- A record number of people snapped up bargains in September. The median price of a home sold in the US fell to 174,000, down 9 percent from $191,200 one year ago. Note: The significant price drop could be blamed in part to the First Time Buyer Tax Credit which favors the lower priced homes.
- Keep in mind that the homes counted as “sold” in September were actually purchased in June, July and August. No doubt the push to buy this summer had something to do with the expiring $8000 Tax Credit.
- 70 percent of all homes closed in September were foreclosures or distressed property.
- 80 percent of the homes closed, were sold for less than $250,000. The market above $250,000 has stalled and inventory is rapidly growing. And, the more expensive the home, the slower the market.
- The biggest sales gains (not price gains) were seen in the hard hit cities of Miami and Orlando. Sales in Miami were up 71 percent from last year, Orlando 65 percent. Note: Prices are still falling dramatically in the Sunshine state. In Miami and Orlando prices declined more than 30 percent from last year; Tampa prices fell to $133,000, down 17 percent.
- Sales of existing homes were down nearly 20 percent in Atlanta and Birmingham. Local Realtors blame job loss for lack of activity.
- Prices were flat or up a bit in some cities: Dallas, Houston, San Antonio; Tulsa; Jackson, MS and Washington DC.
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10 Signs of a Bottom in Housing
For those of us searching for signs of a bottom in the housing market, the writing is now on the wall. The charts are bottoming out and leveling off.
10 Noteworthy observations and signs include:
- The rate of REO’s (real estate owned by the bank) coming onto the marketplace has slowed across the country.
- In May, sales prices for existing homes rose 3 percent from April levels.
- The number of Sold Homes surged in California, Nevada, Arizona and other hard hit area’s of the nation.
- Even in Las Vegas, the epicenter of the crash, sales prices are firming and seller’s are receiving near full asking price, albeit at a 50 percent discount to pre-crash levels.
- Inventory levels of existing and new homes has fallen in recent months.
- The doomsayers were wrong about runaway inflation and rising rates. 30 year fixed interest rates remain at a very attractive 5.5 percent and banks are lending money.
- Stocks of pubically traded home building companies have moved off their bottoms and are trading within a sustainable uptrend range.
- The number of housing starts increased for the first time in months. Since financing for speculation homes is hard, if not impossible to obtain, we assume these homes are already sold before construction begins, signaling demand.
- Large home builders are starting to acquire select tracts of land for future development.
- The rate of borrowers receiving notice of foreclosure has seen a meaningful decline of late.
Finally, we have a glimpse of light at the end of a long tunnel. While the market will surely continue to experience difficulties, news indicates that the worst may well be behind us.
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Sales of Existing Homes Increases. Bottom in Sight
Sales for existing homes increased nearly 3 percent, on average, in April, slightly exceeding forecasts and expectations. The report offered hope that home sales were stabilizing and we may be at the bottom of the housing recession. Watch the short 1 minute video for more information about your local and national housing market.
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Warren Buffett Says Inflation is Coming.
In the annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholder’s meeting, Warren Buffett, the oracle of Omaha, predicted that inflation will hit the US economy due to the financial crisis. Buffett told shareholders, “I haven’t had my taxes raised. My guess is the ultimate price will be paid by a shrinkage of the value of the dollar”.
If Warren is right, and he usually is, the average person can use his wisdom to profit with a smart real estate investment.
- To invest safely, a home buyer should put 20 percent down and take out a 30 year fixed rate mortgage, locking in an interest rate around 4.5 percent. If you haven’t owned a home over the past 3 years, you can cash in immediately with the $8000 tax credit. When inflation hits, your mortgage costs will remain the same, as your salary increases. This means that you have even more money to save and invest later on.
- If you are currently renting, there is another compelling reason to invest. During periods of inflation, rents will rise. If you don’t own a home, your monthly rent obiligations will soar.
- Another reason to invest in real estate is that during times of inflation, home prices appreciate, if even at a slower pace. History shows that during inflationary periods, real estate appreciation tends to beat inflation by 2-3 percentage points.
- Leveraged assets, such as real estate, outperform other asset classes. Leverage magnifies gains because as your income rises, your debt payments will not. You’ll be able to pay off the mortgage with money that is worth less than it was when you borrowed it.
- With home prices and interest rates hovering at historic lows, now may be the perfect time for investor’s to withdraw the cash they have sitting in savings accounts that is paying only a 2-3percent and buy a piece of property. If you buy a property where the tenant covers the expenses and costs of ownership, then the investor can relax and wait for inflation to move up rents and home prices.
InfoTube.net and Warren Buffett agree that inflation, over the next 5 years, is a sure bet. And, when we get rampant inflation, real estate is the perfect hedge. Throw in low prices, cheap money, ridiculously low returns on cash investments and thousands of dollars in tax savings, and you have a powerful case for buying a home now.
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Interest Rates, Home Prices, Tax Incentives Move Buyers Off the Fence
People who are gainfully employed, with solid credit, and have a down payment can buy a lot more house these days, thanks to record low interest rates and home prices.
The average interest rate for a 30 year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 4.79 percent on Wednesday, after the Fed announced that it would begin buying up bonds and mortgage-backed securities.
The real estate market has recently seen a pick up in activity due to the $8000 tax credit for first-time buyers. And, the huge drop in lending rates yesterday, put a huge layer of icing on the cake for home seller’s. When people, who can qualify for a loan to buy a home, see the combination of tax incentives, low interest rates and dramatic price drops, the ones that are sitting on the fence, jump in and buy. Urgency to buy and refinance is also important when rates fall this low, as often the drop is temporary, as it was in January 2009.
The convergence of ecomonic stimulus does benefit some Americans more than others, however. People who do not have a down payment or good credit are less likely to benefit from the postive news, as are the 14 million Americans who are upside down (owe more on their home than it is worth) or face foreclosure. More than 13,000 struggling homeowner’s are calling the Homeownership Perservation Foundation each day. The hotline for help number is 1-888-995-HOPE.
Thank you for visiting InfoTube. net homes for sale website. Spring is here. Rates are Low. House Prices are Fantastic. Tax Incentives Abound. Buyers, Get off the Fence and Lock in the Deal of Your Lifetime. The fact is you have to live somewhere, and if renting was so great, ask yourself why your landlord owns??
6 of 10 Buyers Believe Home Prices are High
Homegain recently polled Realtors from across the country to learn what buyer’s and seller’s think about home pricing. The results are shown below.
| Buyers think listing prices are … | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Overpriced | Fairly priced | Underpriced | |
| US | 59% | 18% | 23% |
| West | 51% | 23% | 26% |
| Southeast | 59% | 15% | 26% |
| Midwest | 63% | 16% | 21% |
| Northeast | 62% | 18% | 20% |
| Vs. suggested price, owners think their home’s worth is … | |||
| Higher | Equal | Lower | |
| US | 63% | 14% | 23% |
| West | 54% | 16% | 30% |
| Southeast | 67% | 11% | 22% |
| Midwest | 62% | 17% | 21% |
| Northeast | 72% | 10% | 18% |
| Realtors think in the next 6 months, prices in their towns will … | |||
| Decrease | Stay same | Increase | |
| US | 53% | 36% | 11% |
| West | 66% | 27% | 7% |
| Southeast | 52% | 36% | 12% |
| Midwest | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Northeast | 54% | 40% | 6% |
To see the survey questions with more data and information CLICK HERE.
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Expert Panel See’s Little Hope for 2009
Inman News, a leader in real estate news and publishing, is hosting its annual Real Estate Connect Conference in New York City this week.
On Wednesday, a well respected panel of industry experts sounded off during a “Bulls vs Bears” discussion of the real estate market in 2009. We were anxiously waiting to report a little good news from these real estate guru’s, but sadly there were no Bulls in attendance.
We thought our readers might be interested in the highlights, so we outlined some of the widely held opinions and sentiments expressed by the panel.
- Home prices will remain unaffordable in many markets.
- Until home prices reach a level that a couple on entry level salaries can afford to buy a starter home, the market will continue to correct.
- With rising unemployment, it is unrealistic to expect that lower interest rates will be enough to stimulate home sales.
- 12 months of unsold home inventory is extremely excessive. Too many houses is another sign that a turnaround is no where in sight.
- Housing will not have a V-shaped recovery, with prices rebounding quickly from a bottom. The chart will be L-shaped, with a long period where prices stay flat.
- Time is our best friend. The ecomony will take years, not months to play out. At a macroeconomic level, there is no point in talking about recovery yet.
- All the rescue plans, tax credits and bailouts will have little effect in the face of rising job losses, along with falling wages and confidence.
- If people understand the magnitude of the problem, and they plan to stay in their home for 5-10 years, then there is no real reason they shouldn’t buy now.
- No one on the panel reported that they see a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel.
In the end, the “Bulls and Bears” session concluded with a sigh. The experts concurred that the market will still be grappling with many of the same issues it is today, one year from now. But, they are adapting to the new world order. New York Times reporter, Andrew Ross Sorkin stated that instead of spending his time writing about mergers and acquisitions, he is still busy. His new subject…Covering Bankruptcies.
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Cities Poised for Higher Home Prices
This short video clip from Forbes is of interest to seller’s, buyer’s and those who are watching the real estate market.
Click on this link to learn which US cities will bounce back the quickest and pick up some tips about why they will.
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Breaking News: House prices continue to fall.
InfoTube homes for sale
The Case Shiller index of home prices across the US was just released. Follow the link to learn about the present market in your city.
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