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3 Short Real Estate News Items of Interest.

1. Good news for US Housing.  For those of you still searching for a BOTTOM in the real estate market, we hit it in January 2009.  A double bottom, in fact.  Take a look at the CHART.
2. China raised its minimum down payment requirement to 40 percent, in an effort to slow down the overheated housing market in Hong Kong.  Conversely, in the US, we still offer financing with NO Money Down, when the tax rebate is combined with FHA or VA financing.  Quite startling in light of the lessons we learned from subprime loans.
3. Uncle Sam Added 5 Percent to Home Prices.  Government interventions in the housing market have inflated home prices at least 5 percent higher than they would have been.  Artifically low interest rates, $8000 tax credits, push for loan modifications and efforts to stall foreclosures may have created a false bottom.  Since the props won’t last forever, the risk of price decline in the future is significant. 

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 The stock market is back to 10,000, the level it reached in 1999.  Sales of existing homes were up a whopping 8 percent, to the highest level seen in 2 years.  The news is abuzz about an extension of the First Time Buyer Tax Credit….But, is it time to “Party like it’s 1999″???

Here is a snapshot of Friday’s real estate news.  You decide.

1. A record number of people snapped up bargains in September.  The median price of a home sold in the US fell to 174,000, down 9 percent from $191,200 one year ago.  Note: The significant price drop could be blamed in part to the First Time Buyer Tax Credit which favors the lower priced homes.
2. Keep in mind that the homes counted as “sold” in September were actually purchased in June, July and August.  No doubt the push to buy this summer had something to do with the expiring $8000 Tax Credit.
3. 70 percent of all homes closed in September were foreclosures or distressed property.
4. 80 percent of the homes closed, were sold for less than $250,000.  The market above $250,000 has stalled and inventory is rapidly growing.  And, the more expensive the home, the slower the market.
5. The biggest sales gains (not price gains) were seen in the hard hit cities of Miami and Orlando.  Sales in Miami were up 71 percent from last year, Orlando 65 percent.  Note: Prices are still falling dramatically in the Sunshine state.  In Miami and Orlando prices declined more than 30 percent from last year;  Tampa prices fell to $133,000, down 17 percent.
6. Sales of existing homes were down nearly 20 percent in Atlanta and Birmingham.  Local Realtors blame job loss for lack of activity.
7. Prices were flat or up a bit in some cities:  Dallas, Houston, San Antonio; Tulsa; Jackson, MS and Washington DC.

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Toxic, sulfur laden sheetrock, Made in China, is making people sick, causing electrical wiring to go crazy and is corroding copper, wire and stainless steel in American homes.   The problem has affected thousands of homes in 20 states, yet, the US court system is powerless when to hold Chinese manufacturers (most of which are owned by the Chinese government) responsible for problems caused by their products.

The hardest hit area of the country may be the slowly recovering New Orleans area, and the coastal area’s wiped out by Katrina.  After enduring floods and mud, this man-made victimization is the last thing these communities need or deserve.   For those wondering how bad the problem is….The problem is so bad that local governments, already low on funds, are waiving property taxes for homes rebuilt with the Made in China, toxic sheetrock.

                                      Facts About Toxic Chinese Drywall and Sheetrock:

1. The sheetrock may emit a sulfuric odor, which smells a bit like rotten eggs.
2. Health Problems are being Reported.  The most common health effects from the drywall are skin rashes, blisters and headaches.
3. Homeowners insurance does not cover claims due to construction defects.  When insurers discover a property has Chinese drywall, they are canceling homeowner policies.
4. The gases emitted by the Chinese Drywall eat away at any copper, aluminum or stainless materials inside the home.  This means that appliances, wiring, mirrors, computers, toys, plumbing pipes and fixtures, jewelry, HVAC or any systems that contain these component materials will also be damaged, usually beyond repair
5. Seller’s of Homes that contain Chinese Sheetrock must disclose that fact, even if all the sheetrock in the home has been replaced.
6. If your home contains any Chinese Made Drywall/Sheetrock file a compliant with Consumer Product Protection Council and also check about making a local compliant with your state.
7. For updates on the Chinese drywall, multi-district lawsuits (MDL #2047 to to www.laed.uscourts.gov and click on Drywall MDL.

One tell tale sign of toxic sheetrock can be seen in the corners of mirrors

Watch for corrosion in and around plumbing fixtures, refrigerators, ac units, on stainless steel appliances or any area with metal components.  

Our two cents:  In light of this most recent, very serious, and potentially deadly, problem with cheap imports, all Americans need to reconsider their ongoing love affair with everything cheap and Chinese.  If the US government, who allows these imports, can’t force the Chinese manufacturers to stand behind the products they sell, then the retailers, who chose to buy these goods should have to.    The cost of uprooting families and replacing all the sheetrock, mechanical systems and personal property in over 60,000 reported homes is overwhelming.   If anyone deserves a taxpayer bailout, it’s these innocent homeowners who have been victimized by governments and retailers, alike.

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Case Shiller just released its latest report on the state of the residential estate market.  The good news is that home prices are falling more slowly.  The bad news is that that we have a little ways to go.

What the Numbers Show:

• Through August, 2009, the price of an average home sold in the US fell approximately 13 percent, year over year, from 2008 levels.
• Home prices have now dropped to 2003 valuation levels, wiping out 6 years of home appreciation.
• Since the peak in 2006, average home prices are down 33 percent.

What Do the Numbers Say About the Future??

• Prediction:  The “average” home price will likely fall more than 13 percent by year end.  Reason:  Home prices are always at their highest in the spring and summer.  Families move during this time of year and they buy the largest, most expensive properties.  As a result, Summer home sales skew the “average” price upward in the fall, but only temporarily.
• Prediction:  Home Sales will suffer a downturn due to the expiration of the $8000 First Time Buyer’s Credit.   So far this year, 350,000 buyers have been persuaded to purchase because of this incentive.   To read more about the success of the 1st Time Home Buyers Tax Credit, CLICK HERE.

Our Crystal Ball:  The pace of the fall is slowing, but the expiration of the tax credit and the ”shadow inventory” of another 1.5 Million foreclosures will continue to put downward pressure on the market in 2010.  As a result, we predict that 2010 home prices will decline 6-7 percent.  The upside is that nearly all buying risk is out of the market.  Interest rates are at historical lows.  Any increase in rates would erase the possible gain a buyer would achieve from correctly timing the exact bottom…even if the timing were perfect. 

Bottom Line:  If you plan to buy a home within the next year, now is a great time.   Chose the best home, in the best location and the one that you can easily afford.  Live and enjoy the home for at least 5 years and you will likely be patting yourself on the back for a job well done.

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I’m sure we’ve all heard our parents warn, “and, don’t let the bed bugs bite”, as we toddled off to bed…but most of us have never considered that bed bugs were real pests, because most of us have never seen a bed bug.  

As creepy as it is, Bed Bugs are real and they are back with a vengence.  The use of DDT eradicated bed bugs more than 50 years ago, which explains why most of us have never seen one.   Today, exterminators use roach traps, instead of insecticide sprays, which do not wipe out the bed bugs along with the roaches.  So, the tiny bed bug is making a resurgence in a big way.

How Can You Find Bed Bugs before You’re Eaten?  READ MORE…..

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A recent news article by Reuters states that “The percentage of U.S. homeowners who owe more than their house is worth will nearly double to 48 percent in 2011.”  

Meaning? Half of us will be upside down, underwater, or whatever you want to call it over the next 2 years?  Pretty scary.  How do they know that?   One indicator they use may be the Shadow Inventory of Homes, which will eventually enter the market place over the next 3 years. 

So, what is a Shadow Inventory of Homes and How Does it Affect Future Home Values?  Technically, a property is not in foreclosure until the lenders files against a deliquent loan.   Lenders are purposefully not filing to foreclose, in order to control the present inventory by keeping homes off the market.  This creates a Shadow Inventory of Homes in Default.  Why do they do this?  Simple economics, really.   Less supply creates more demand (ie: higher prices) for the property they already have for sale.

Since, we know lenders are holding back the number of homes that should be in foreclosure, how many “shadow” distressed properties will come into the market in the future?  Truefully, we can’t know the exact number.  That is the reason it is referred to as a Shadow Inventory.  We can all see that the problem is lurking out there, but we can’t identify the exact numbers or the amount of future damage because “only the shadow knows…”.

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Foreclosures UP.  Unemployment UP.  U.S. home prices DOWN.

Home prices in the United States dropped another 6.8 percent in April from the same period only one year earlier.   The housing crash has now erased 26 percent of the equity in the median priced home, since the peak in July 2006.  The silver lining for renters is that home affordability is at near record levels.

Economists predict that the market will continue to see more home price declines, despite $8000 tax incentives and $275 billon in funding to keep some owner’s in their homes.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank said US home prices may fall another 14 percent before they stabilize.  Like sentiment was expressed by Robert Shiller, who co-founded the respected S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index.   Many predict the worse declines could be even worse in New York and Orange County, CA.

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As if being foreclosed upon isn’t traumatic enough, one man from Minneapolis can attest that being homeless might not be the worst thing that can happen to you, if you lose your home.   

When the city of Minneapolis evicted Joe Poetsch from the home he had lived in his entire life, they actually boarded the poor owner up inside the home, then drove away.  Mr. Poetsch, like millions of other Americans, admited he made a few mistakes that caused him to lose the roof over his head.   But, talk about kicking someone when they are down…Imagine losing the only home you ever had, and then suffering the humiliation of being boarded up inside, then abandoned. 

Although hard to believe, it’s all true.  Read the story from the Star Tribune Newspaper below. 

Cane in hand, he lurched around, throwing a few things in bags, putting Kitty in the carrier. He heard the contractor outside starting to drill into the door frame.

Poetsch made his way down his narrow stairway, resigned to the end he had resisted for three years, through personal financial missteps, the false promise of a foreclosure“rescue” and a court victory that gave him short-lived hope.

He came to the door and realized that he was too late. A truck had driven away from the house, prompting those outside to think the tenants were gone. Poetsch had been boarded up inside his house.

City officials say Poetsch had ample warning that they were coming that day, but they say his brief incarceration was an unprecedented mistake. In many ways, Poetsch’s experience is emblematic of the forces that have fastened plywood over so much of the North Side and urban neighborhoods across America.

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Being raised in rural Missouri, the concept of using goats (goating out a property) to clear and maintain land is not a new one.  But, for many people, the idea of using goats, instead of noisy mowers, to help with the chores is an option they never considered.

Goats, What’s Not to Love?  In addition to being very cute and smart, goats are great at clearing brush and weeds without using gasoline, polluting the air or disturbing the peace.  Mowing by goat means less work for busy people, it is chemical free and the little darlings automatically fertilize as they work. 

Even Silicon Valley and other metro area’s are looking to the environmentally, friendly goat as a non-tech means of maintaining their grounds and property.  Google “hired” 200 goats to maintain the grounds at its Mt. View, CA headquarters.  Yahoo, located just a stones throw away, must have loved the idea because they also rented goats to cut their grass.  Even cities are joining in the goat movement.  Mesa, AZ has used goats to maintain the land around their water reclaimation plant for quite some time.

All “Kidding” Aside….  If Rent-A-Goat appeals to your lazy and green side, renting one is as easy as locating your nearest goat farm.  Or, you can visit GoatFinder.com, which has a directory for goat rentals for 10 states.  But beware before you rent, using goats has risks, like a deep attachment.  Goats are so cute and friendly, it can be very hard to say Goodbye when the work is done. 

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